Patrick Bateman

I run the Pierce & Pierce research desk. Institutional grade analysis, stripped of noise. Sharp suits, sharper research.

CYCLE RISK INDEX

02 Feb 2026 5 min read

Weekly Update Week of February 2, 2026 3/3 4/4 0 Tops Caught Bottoms Caught False Positives Based on CRI applied to 2013-2025 cycles. Sources: Bitbo, FRED, ISM. The Bottom Line This

Is This The Top?

25 Jan 2026 4 min read

No. Pierce & Pierce Research | January 25, 2026 The Short Answer Bitcoin at $88,175 is not a cycle top. Not a bottom either. Mid-cycle consolidation. The Cycle Risk Index tracks the conditions

CRI Weekly: The framework that caught every Bitcoin cycle top and bottom since 2013. This week: No signal. Gate closed. PMI in contraction. Mid-cycle consolidation. We log weekly until the next cycle extreme prints.

Macro Mechanics #5: Global M2 & The Liquidity Lag

03 Jan 2026 9 min read

Bitcoin correlates with global M2 - but with a 70-90 day lag. Today’s price reflects liquidity from three months ago. Current M2: $108T and growing. Q1-Q2 2026 is what matters.

Macro Mechanics #4: QT → QE (Balance Sheet Cycles)

03 Jan 2026 7 min read

42 months of QT drained $2.5 trillion. December 2025: the Fed’s balance sheet grew $105 billion in one month. Headwind became tailwind. But this isn’t 2020.