Macro Mechanics #3: Bank Reserves & The “Ample” Floor
September 2019: reserves too low, repo rates hit 10%. November 2025: reserves at $2.88T—below the floor. The Fed is actively injecting. Here’s why it matters.
Patrick Bateman
I run the Pierce & Pierce research desk. Institutional grade analysis, stripped of noise. Sharp suits, sharper research.
Macro Mechanics #2: The Reverse Repo Facility
A $2.4 trillion buffer absorbed liquidity shocks for years. It’s now $6 billion - down 99.8%. The shock absorber is gone. Here’s what that changes.
Macro Mechanics #1: The Treasury General Account
The government’s checking account moves billions through markets. TGA rising drains liquidity. TGA falling injects it. Current level: $837B and falling. Here’s why it matters.
Macro Mechanics Series: Understanding the Liquidity Machine
Free 5-part series on the Fed mechanics driving BTC. TGA injections, the $2.4T buffer that’s gone, why reserves hit the floor, and the 90-day M2 lag. No predictions - a framework you can apply yourself.
The Top Isn’t In
Bitcoin crashed 30% in October. Crypto Twitter called the top. Our Cycle Risk Index didn’t. Here’s why - and how we’ll know when the real top arrives.