Avantis: Tier-2 Perp DEX Betting on a Q2+ Cascade but it's competing with sector leaders

High-Risk Mid-Cap 17 Days Post Crash from $1.19 Requiring Tier 1 Recovery Before Capital Flows

Cycle reality: 18 months post-halving (April 2024), late bull, rotation opens Q2 2026 (6-9 months); BTC.D 58.94%, Altseason Index 43; AVNT -51% from $1.19 ATH (Oct 4), +33% yearly vs GMX -57%, dYdX -73% = outperforming dying sector (Source: CoinGecko, Coinglass, Oct 21, 2025)

Base target: $0.45-0.65 (3-6 months, 45%) IF survives post-crash consolidation AND Season 3 retains >$12B monthly volume AND doesn't lose share to GMX/dYdX recovery

Rotation target: $0.90-1.40 (6-12 months, 15%) IF BTC.D <52% by Q2-Q3 2026 AND captures 20-33% of Tier 2 derivatives rotation capital AND 73% unlock overhang doesn't crater market

Risk control: Exit on daily close <$0.40 or GMX/dYdX outperforming +30% over 30 days / Top risks: Tier 1 competition (35%), token unlocks (35%), mercenary capital flight (30%)