Has Bitcoin Topped? The Data Says No.

Nine independent metrics spanning macro conditions, on-chain valuation, and market structure converge on the same conclusion: Bitcoin is consolidating, not distributing

Pierce & Pierce Research
November 2, 2025

Executive Summary

Bitcoin trades at $110,448—down 12.5% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,080—leaving investors asking a fundamental question: Has Bitcoin topped?

Our analysis: No.

Nine independent metrics spanning macro liquidity conditions, Bitcoin-specific valuation models, and market structure indicators point to the same conclusion: Bitcoin is consolidating in neutral economic conditions, not distributing in a euphoric cycle peak. One metric—financial conditions—presents a neutral-to-supportive signal consistent with both mid-cycle consolidation and previous peaks, requiring examination alongside other factors.

This report applies the liquidity-cycle framework advanced by Raoul Pal and institutional macro analysts, which emphasizes global money supply dynamics and economic conditions over programmed supply events.