Celestia: $1.28 expected value today, $1.65–$1.95 If BTC dominance drops below 59%

Setup: Bitcoin is pushing new highs around $111K at time of writing while TIA sits -80.9% from Feb highs at $20.85, having bottomed at $0.5108 just 16 days ago. The kind of drawdown that separates conviction from capitulation survivors. TIA already doubled from ATL—the question isn't "will it bounce" but "can the bounce sustain" as BTC Dominance hovers at 59.75%, within striking distance of the <59% altseason transition gate.

EV (unconditional): $1.28 (+24%).

Conditional EV (BTC.D <59% + modular confirms): $1.42 (+38%).

Zero unlock overhang: 83% already circulating—most supply pressure already absorbed during the -95% drawdown from ATH to ATL.

What's an unlock? Previously non-tradable tokens become sellable, creating selling pressure. TIA's heavy unlocks already happened.

Research Date: October 26, 2025, 08:30 UTC | Read Time: 9-10 minutes