ETHEREUM: THE QUIET LEADER IN A LOUD MARKET

18 months post-halving, BTC at $110K signals late bull—rotation window Q1-Q2 2026 (3-6 months), peak by Q3 2026 (6-9 months), then cycle tops. ETH -19% from ATH with October $600M outflows but three Q1-Q2 catalysts (ETF options, Pectra, staking). Either catches rotation for $7K-10K or consolidates $3.8-5.5K into bear market. Window closing fast.

Cycle reality: 18 months post-halving (April 2024), BTC $110K—historically late bull; rotation window Q1-Q2 2026 (3-6 months), peaks Q2-Q3 2026 (6-9 months), then tops; BTC.D 59.76%, must drop to <50% fast (Source: TradingView, Oct 20, 2025)

Base target: $5,500-7,000 (Q2-Q3 2026, 45%) IF catalysts hit Q1-Q2 AND captures rotation

Rotation target: $8,000-10,500 (Q2-Q3 2026, 15%) IF all catalysts execute AND rotation accelerates AND ETH/BTC normalizes from 0.036 to 0.05+

Risk control: Exit $3,800 weekly / Top risks: catalysts delayed past Q1 (miss window entirely), October $600M outflows continue, cycle tops before rotation