Friday Market Brief - 24 October 2025
For education only. CPI has not printed yet; scenarios below are conditional.
14:00 (UST) - CPI Updated at the end of the report
CPI Day: Cleanest setup in 6 weeks—balanced leverage, all eyes on 8:30am ET.
Top Line
Bitcoin sits at $111k into CPI with clean positioning—flat funding, -56% liquidations, no froth. Dominance near 60% keeps BTC > alts. A soft inflation print opens $113k+; a hot print risks $105-108k.
Sources: CoinGecko, CoinMarketCap, TradingView (09:00 UTC); Coinglass; Alternative.me
Quick Take (90 seconds)
Where we are:
- BTC $111k, dominance 60%, Fear & Greed 27—market cautious despite being only 12% below ATH
- Liquidations -56%, funding near zero (no excessive leverage either direction)
- Institutions buying BTC (+$101M/week via ETFs), selling ETH (-$127M)
What matters today:
- CPI 8:30am ET: soft number (cooling inflation) → likely $113k push; hot number (sticky inflation) → $105-108k test
- BTC options expiring with max pain at $113k—creates price gravity until 4pm UTC, then volatility often increases
Key levels:
- Support: $108,872 (held 3x this week), deeper at $104,778 (breakdown level)
- Resistance: $113,000 (ceiling to clear)
The big picture:
- Alts won't run until BTC Dominance <54% (now 59.86%) AND ETH breaks $4,100 (now $3,948)
- Still "Bitcoin Season"—capital flows to BTC when uncertainty rises
Market Snapshot — Top Assets
| Asset | Price | 24h | 7d | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | $111,052 | +1.3% | +3.9% | Leading; sturdy bid |
| ETH | $3,948 | +1.5% | +3.2% | Lagging BTC |
| SOL | $192 | — | — | Neutral; needs ETH |
| BNB | $1,127 | +1.9% | -0.2% | Weekly laggard |
| XRP | $2.44 | +1.1% | +4.3% | Outperforming; low conviction |
Note: SOL spot performance not available in source data; OI at $9.10B (+1.15%).
Sources: CoinMarketCap, Coinglass (09:00 UTC)
Market State (5 Bullets)
Price action: BTC $108,872–$111,481 range over 24h, now $111,052 (CoinGecko) / $111,002 (CMC). Tight consolidation. (09:00 UTC)
ETH underperforming: $3,948, up +1.5% but +3.2% on week vs BTC's +3.9%. BTC/ETH ratio 28.13 (down -1.6% d/d)—one BTC buys 28.13 ETH, and that ratio is falling. More demand for BTC than ETH. (TradingView)
Still Bitcoin Season: Dominance 59.86%. Altcoin Season Index 37/100 (under 45 = Bitcoin Season). Alts won't run sustainably until BTC cools and dominance drops below 54%. (TradingView, Coinglass)
Derivatives calm: Open interest +2.8% to $153.8B (more positions) BUT liquidations -56% to $228.7M (no forced selling). Funding near zero (BTC +0.0039%, ETH +0.0063%, SOL +0.0063%)—neither bulls nor bears dominant. Translation: calm accumulation without excessive leverage—stable, not fragile. (Coinglass, 09:00 UTC)
Sentiment + On-Chain: Fear & Greed 27 (Fear) despite BTC just 12% below Oct 6 ATH of $126,080—classic "wall of worry." MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value, shown in Coinglass chart) sits in fair-value territory, well below typical cycle-top zones (>3.5). Room to run, no mania yet. (Alternative.me, CoinGecko, Coinglass)
Levels That Matter
Bitcoin (BTC) — $111,052
Support: $108,872 (yesterday's low, held 3x this week) | Deeper: $104,778 (7-day low—break = regime change, opens $100-102k)
Resistance: $113,000 (options max pain + 7-day high $113,349—ceiling to clear) | Breakout: Clear $113k → $115-117k range
Volume: $52.5B/24h—healthy but not euphoric (CMC)
What traders watch: Stop near $108.5k if long. Entry zones: dips to $109k OR breakout above $113k with volume. Weekend liquidity thin—swings may exaggerate.
Ethereum (ETH) — $3,948
Support: $3,850–$3,900 | Resistance: $4,050–$4,100 (needs to reclaim for independent strength)
BTC/ETH ratio: 28.13—below 27.0 signals ETH catching momentum. Until then, lag trade. (TradingView)
Catalyst Map — CPI (8:30am ET)
Status: CPI not yet released as of this brief; scenarios below are conditional.
| Outcome | Core CPI MoM | Likely BTC | What to Watch After |
|---|---|---|---|
| Good for BTC (cooling) | <0.3% | Challenge $113k+, funding may tick up | Follow-through in thin weekend liquidity |
| Expected (in-line) | ~0.3% (consensus) | Range $108-112k; chop | Monday confirmation when flows return |
| Bad for BTC (sticky) | >0.3% | Test $105-108k; alts underperform sharply | Funding flips negative? OI bleeds? |
Context: Last month 0.3% MoM, 3.1% YoY. Consensus today: 0.3%. Upside surprise (0.4%+) reignites sticky-inflation fears. (MarketWatch, BLS)
Options: BTC options expiring today, max pain $113k—pinning effect most relevant until ~4pm UTC; volatility often increases after. (CoinDesk)
Flow & Macro
Institutions: BTC ETFs +$101.4M (Oct 22), cumulative $61.84B. ETH ETFs -$127.4M (Oct 23), cumulative $10.26B. Translation: rotating within crypto—buying BTC, selling/ignoring ETH—consistent with rising BTC dominance. (Farside Investors)
Macro: S&P +0.58% w/w, Nasdaq +0.88%. 10Y yield 4.005% (-2.36% 1M, supportive). DXY 98.98 (+1.78% 1M, mild headwind). (TradingView)
Causality: S&P up +0.58% while BTC Dominance rose ~1.2 percentage points = rotation within crypto (alts → BTC), not risk-off. If equities were driving, BTC and alts would move together. BTC acting like digital gold within crypto.
News (Context, Not Catalysts)
Trump-Xi meeting confirmed — Risk-on overnight; already priced in. (CoinDesk)
Sygnum launches BTC-backed loans — Institutional infra; long-term bullish, not today's catalyst. (CoinDesk)
On-chain perps >$1T monthly volume — DeFi gaining share; structural, not price driver. (CoinDesk)
SBF clemency speculation — Pure noise; ignore. (CoinDesk)
BTC options expiry, max pain $113k — Tactical gravity until 4pm UTC. (CoinDesk)
What Professionals Watch (Framework, Not Advice)
Positioning: Neutral-to-constructive with BTC preference. Many pros run 60-70% BTC, 10-15% ETH, 5-10% selective alts, 15-20% stables in this setup.
Dry powder: 15-20% stables typical into binary events. Deploy on hot CPI dips ($108-109k) or benign CPI breakouts ($113k+ with volume). If uncertain, waiting for CPI data is valid—no edge front-running binary events.
Alt framework: Rotation needs (1) Dominance <54%, (2) 2-3 green days market-wide, (3) ETH >$4,100. We're not there yet; treat alts as tactical, not trend, until those three signals align.
Tripwires — Alerts to Set
If you only set alerts for one section—make it this one.
1. Funding >+0.02% → Too much leverage → Flush likely within 24-48h
✅ Safe now (+0.0039%, far from danger)
2. Funding <-0.01% → Capitulation → Historical buying opportunity
✅ Not triggered (still positive)
3. BTC weekly close >$113k (Sun 23:59 UTC) → Breakout confirmed → $115-117k targets
⏳ Watch into Sunday
4. BTC weekly close <$104,778 → Range break down → $100-102k next
✅ Not at risk unless very hot CPI
5. BTC/ETH <27.0 → ETH catching momentum → Rotation signal
📊 Currently 28.13 (BTC-favored)
6. ETH daily close >$4,100 → Risk-on confirmed → Alt season green light
📊 Currently $3,948 (not close)
Data Snapshot (09:00 UTC)
Market: $3.83T cap (+1.3%) | $154.6B volume (CMC)
BTC: $111,052 | +1.3% 24h | +3.9% 7d | 12% below ATH $126,080 (Oct 6)
ETH: $3,948 | +1.5% 24h | +3.2% 7d
Regime: Dominance 59.86% | Altseason Index 37 | F&G 27 (Fear)
Derivatives: OI $153.8B (+2.8%) | Liq $228.7M (-56%) | Funding: BTC +0.0039% / ETH +0.0063% / SOL +0.0063%
ETFs: BTC +$101.4M (Oct 22), $61.84B total | ETH -$127.4M (Oct 23), $10.26B total (Farside)
Macro: SPX 6,738 (+0.58% w/w) | NDX 25,097 (+0.88%) | 10Y 4.005% | DXY 98.98 (TradingView)
TL;DR
BTC $111k, clean leverage (flat funding, -56% liqs), dominance 60%. CPI 8:30am ET decides: cooler print → $113k+ probe; hot print → $105-108k test. Options max-pain $113k may pin until 4pm UTC, then volatility typically rises. Until dominance <54% and ETH >$4,100, alts = patience. Keep modest cash buffer for post-CPI dips or confirmed breakout.
Editorial Standards
All figures sourced directly from named providers at stated times. CPI at 8:30am ET has not occurred yet—scenarios are conditional based on historical patterns. Cross-referenced where multiple sources available.
Sources: CoinGecko, CoinMarketCap, TradingView, Coinglass, Farside Investors, Alternative.me, CoinDesk, MarketWatch, BLS.
Pierce & Pierce does not fabricate data. SOL spot performance not available in source materials; only derivatives data cited.
⚡ CPI FLASH UPDATE — 2:00pm ET
The Print: CPI 3.0% YoY vs 3.1% consensus — inflation cooling, dovish outcome
BTC Reaction: Muted. BTC at $111,282 (14:00 ET), up just +$200 from pre-CPI levels despite the favorable print. 24h range: $108,872–$111,658. Currently +2.0% on the day.
Why the tepid response?
1. Options expiry gravity — Max pain at $113k keeps price pinned until 4pm UTC (11am ET). Post-expiry, the magnetic pull disappears.
2. Weekend positioning — Traders hesitant to chase into thin weekend liquidity. The favorable CPI removes downside risk (no $105k test needed) but doesn’t create FOMO yet.
3. Already priced — BTC held $111k into the print, suggesting market expected in-line or better. The 0.1% beat (3.0% vs 3.1%) isn’t shocking enough to trigger aggressive repositioning.
What this means for your levels:
✅ Downside scenario off the table — The “hot CPI → $105-108k test” is no longer in play. Support at $108.8k held and strengthened.
⚠️ Upside not confirmed yet — BTC needs to clear $113k with volume to signal the next leg. Right now we’re in “good news, no follow-through” mode.
📊 Key watch into the weekend:
• If BTC clears $113k after 11am ET options expiry → “Good for BTC” scenario plays out with lag; targets $115-117k early next week
• If BTC consolidates $110-112k through weekend → Monday’s institutional return will decide if rally extends
• Funding rates remain flat (+0.0039%) — no leverage building yet, so any breakout would be “clean”
Updated tripwire:
• Watch $113k into the close — Weekly candle close above this level (Sunday 23:59 UTC) would confirm breakout despite today’s muted reaction
Bottom line: CPI delivered the dovish outcome we mapped. BTC’s response is cautious but constructive—downside risk removed, upside still needs confirmation. The real test comes post-options-expiry (after 11am ET) and into Monday when institutional flows return.
Data: CPI 3.0% YoY (BLS, Oct 24 12:30 ET). BTC $111,282 (CoinGecko, 14:00 ET). 24h high $111,658, low $108,872.
Pierce & Pierce Crypto Research — "Signal over spectacle."
Disclaimer: This brief presents market analysis for educational purposes. Not financial advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult qualified advisors before making investment decisions.
