HBAR's First ETF Just Launched: Here's Why It Might Not Matter

TL;DR: ETF is new, BTC dominance is the gate. Base case: $0.22–$0.30. Bull case: $0.32–$0.45 if BTC.D <59% + flows ≥$3M/day.

HBAR at $0.19—down 66% from its 2021 peak but now trading with a Nasdaq-listed ETF for the first time. Institutional investors can finally buy it through their brokerage accounts. There's just one problem: Bitcoin dominance sits at 60%, and until that breaks lower, no altcoin ETF matters. Market participants have about 30 days to observe whether HBAR's enterprise partnerships and new Wall Street access can overcome the macro headwind every altcoin faces right now.

Expected outcome: $0.26 (+37% from $0.19)

Best-case if BTC dominance breaks: $0.37 (+95% from $0.19)

Supply advantage: 85% of all HBAR tokens already circulating—most selling pressure already happened during the 2020-2022 bear market.

What's an unlock? When previously locked tokens become sellable, creating selling pressure. HBAR already did this—most competitors haven't.

Research Date: October 29, 2025, 9:00 AM ET | Read Time: 8 minutes