Hyperliquid: $1.25B revenue perps leader, minus 41% from Sept ATH, Bitcoin Season meets multi-year unlocks

The Setup: HYPE generates $1.25–1.40B annualized revenue (DeFiLlama; trailing fees extrapolated)—dwarfing dYdX ($20M) and GMX ($23M) by 55–60×. Yet it trades 41% below September's $59.30 ATH amid Bitcoin Season consolidation (BTC.D 59.7%, Alt Index 45).

What is Hyperliquid? Decentralized perpetuals exchange on its own L1 chain; HYPE token captures value from exchange operations.

What's an "unlock"? Previously non-tradable tokens become tradable and may be sold.

Current setup: HYPE $35.11, −41% from $59.30 ATH (Sep 2025). Annualized revenue $1.25–1.40B (DeFiLlama)—around 55–60× dYdX ($20.4M) and GMX ($23.0M). Perps $2.01B/24h vs spot $139M (CoinGlass) ⇒ Perp/Spot ≈14.5× (≈3.4× using CoinGecko $2.01B/$591M—CoinGlass coverage subset of spot venues vs CoinGecko broader aggregation drives the gap). Positioning long-skewed (Binance ~2.16:1; top traders ~2.39:1) with $3.6M liquidations/24h (benign). Supply state (TokenUnlocks): 310.1M unlocked (31.0%), 237.6M locked (23.8%) releasing gradually through 2027–28, 452.3M untracked (45.2%; 'untracked' = allocations not modeled to dated vesting stream; not necessarily circulating). Macro: BTC.D 59.7%, Altseason Index 45, Fear & Greed ~27 → Bitcoin Season.

Important: Protocol fees earned by LPs; HYPE token benefits only if tokenomics route value via buybacks/staking mechanisms.

Key levels to monitor: $33.64 (7D low); Nov–Dec unlock releases (historical absorption 2–4% monthly in similar setups varies widely); 14.5× Perp/Spot (derisking compresses toward 8–10×).

Downside risks: Unlock overhang (238M locked, 23.8% max), leverage concentration (14.5× Perp/Spot using CoinGlass venues), data source divergence (circ supply 271–373M range).