Derivatives L1 with $27M TVL vs $830M market cap; 0.0062% fee capture needs 20×-50× growth to justify valuation.

What is Injective? Layer-1 blockchain for decentralized derivatives (perpetual futures, order books, cross-chain trading). $27M TVL with $119M daily perps volume.

What's an "unlock"? Previously non-tradable tokens becoming tradable (potential selling pressure).

Key terms: P/S (Price-to-Sales) = market cap ÷ annual revenue. MCap/TVL = market cap ÷ total value locked (valuation vs on-chain usage). OI = Open Interest (size of outstanding futures positions).

Setup: $8.41, −32.2% (30d), −58% (1y), −84% from ATH $52.62. MCap $830M vs FDV $843M (1.01×). No scheduled unlocks visible in the provided sources; ~98% of supply circulating. Futures $181M / Spot $17M = 10.9× (Coinglass). Long-skewed (Binance 1.26:1, Top Traders 2.02:1). Cycle: BTC.D 59.8%, Alt 37, F&G 27.

Fees: Protocol fees ~$7,395/day (DeFiLlama; protocol-level). ~60% goes to weekly auctions that spend INJ, which is then burned per tokenomics. Actual burn amounts are not reported in our sources; some dApp-level fee capture may not be included in DeFiLlama.

Key levels: OI $72.3M (8.7% MCap). Fees $7.4k/day ($2.7M annual) = 307× P/S ($830M MCap ÷ $2.7M revenue).

Scenario: Base—$10-13 (+19-55%) IF BTC.D <58% + fees 3×-5×. Bear—$5-6 IF Bitcoin Season extends. Bull—needs cycle rotation + fee scaling (1.75% compound probability).

Risks: 307× P/S (35%), 10.9× leverage + long skew (30%), Bitcoin Season (25%), HYPE competition (10%).