Jupiter at 43 cents - 19% yield - January unlock clock - altseason setup
Bitcoin dominance 59.82% crushed altcoins; Jupiter down 60% from January highs despite $318M annualized revenue. The kind of drawdown that separates fundamentals from sentiment. Last 7 days: JUP +26.8% while BTC.D drops 0.14%—classic early rotation signal that confirms or collapses within weeks.
Jupiter does $30B monthly DEX volume with actual revenue, yet faces 700M token unlock (10% supply) January 31. Expected value: $0.48 (+12%) base, $0.65 (+52%) if altseason confirms.
Zero unlock risk through January 27: Monthly unlocks minor (0.76%), Jan 31's 10% cliff defines 2026 risk.
What's an unlock? Locked tokens become tradable, creating selling pressure.
What's BTC.D? Bitcoin's market share of total crypto. Higher = alts starve. Lower = alts thrive.
What's expected value? Probability-weighted outcome across scenarios—not a prediction, a risk/reward framework.
Research Date: October 25, 2025 | Read Time: 9-10 minutes
Jupiter is one of the only tokens in crypto with real revenue + real value capture—and it's still -60% from highs. That's not a red flag. That's the setup.
Altseason gates: <54% = transition • <52% = confirmed
Price Scenarios & Expected Value
| Scenario | Probability | Target | Timeline | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🚨 Bearish | 40% | $0.32–$0.38 | 4-8 weeks | -25% to -12% |
| ⚠️ Base Case | 35% | $0.42–$0.54 | 4-10 weeks | -2% to +26% |
| ✅ Bullish | 20% | $0.58–$0.72 | 6-12 weeks | +35% to +68% |
| 🌙 Moonshot | 5% | $0.85–$1.10 | 8-16 weeks | +98% to +157% |
Expected Value: $0.48 (+12% from $0.43)
Calculation: (0.40 × $0.35) + (0.35 × $0.48) + (0.20 × $0.65) + (0.05 × $0.98) = $0.48
Targets use scenario midpoints; probabilities are illustrative based on historical patterns.
