Level 1: Mental Models
Pierce & Pierce Academy
⏱️ Total time: ~60 minutes across 4 modules
🔓 Access: Free for all subscribers (Observer tier)
📊 Format: Text-based with diagrams and exercises
What You'll Learn in Level 1
Before you can interpret data, you need the correct mental models.
Level 1 rebuilds your foundation for how markets actually work.
Most retail traders think about markets wrong. They say things like "the market thinks Bitcoin is bullish" or "whales are manipulating price." These aren't just imprecise - they're fundamentally wrong mental models that make you a worse analyst.
By the end of Level 1, you'll think like an institutional analyst:
- ✅ You'll never say "the market thinks" again (you'll ask "who transacted and why?")
- ✅ You'll understand why March 2020 crashed -54% then recovered in 3 days
- ✅ You'll know why May 2021 futures liquidations crashed spot -30%
- ✅ You'll predict which $10M order creates 0.5% vs 5% impact
- ✅ You'll use Coinglass liquidation data and order books like a professional
This is the foundation everything else builds on.
The 4 Foundation Modules
Module 1: What Is Price?
⏱️ 15 minutes
What you'll learn:
Most traders think price reflects "what the market thinks." Wrong. Price is the marginal clearing level - where the last transaction occurred given velocity and liquidity. This reframe changes everything.
Key questions you'll be able to answer:
- Why does Bitcoin crash from $69k to $33k in 2 months, then recover to $50k in 3 days?
- What does "$60,000" actually mean as a number?
- Why do weekend moves reverse on Monday open?
What you'll be able to do:
- Distinguish between price (last transaction) and value (weighted average of participant beliefs)
- Predict when small orders create large moves (low liquidity regimes)
- Understand why "support and resistance" is astrology
Start Module 1: What Is Price? →
Module 2: Spot vs Derivatives
⏱️ 13 minutes
What you'll learn:
Spot and derivatives aren't separate markets. They're one market connected by arbitrage. When $5B in futures liquidate, arbitrageurs must sell spot. Your holdings get hit whether you trade derivatives or not.
Key questions you'll be able to answer:
- Why did May 2021 futures liquidations crash spot Bitcoin -30%?
- How does $10B in perpetual futures open interest affect spot price?
- Why do funding rates predict near-term volatility?
What you'll be able to do:
- Understand how derivatives force spot transactions (arbitrage mechanics)
- Predict when futures liquidations will cascade into spot
- Read funding rates as cost-to-carry pressure (not sentiment)
Prerequisites: Complete Module 1 first (builds on "what is price" framework)
Start Module 2: Spot vs Derivatives →
Module 3: Liquidity & Slippage
⏱️ 15 minutes
What you'll learn:
Same $10M order can move price 0.5% or 5% depending on one thing: liquidity depth. Learn why weekends create 10x worse execution and how to predict impact before moves happen.
Key questions you'll be able to answer:
- Why does $10M buy during Asian hours move price 3%, but same order during US hours moves it 0.8%?
- Why are weekends so volatile?
- How do market makers profit from providing liquidity?
What you'll be able to do:
- Read order books to predict execution quality
- Estimate price impact before large orders execute
- Understand why "market orders" are terrible during low liquidity
Prerequisites: Complete Modules 1-2 (builds on price formation + derivatives mechanics)
Start Module 3: Liquidity & Slippage →
Module 4: Forced vs Willing Flows
⏱️ 18 minutes
What you'll learn:
A willing seller with $10M can wait and spread execution. A forced seller must execute NOW—exhausting depth, triggering cascades. Time discretion determines impact intensity.
Key questions you'll be able to answer:
- Why did Germany selling 50,000 BTC crash markets, but MicroStrategy buying similar amounts barely moved price?
- Why do liquidation cascades create such violent moves?
- How do you identify forced selling vs willing distribution?
What you'll be able to do:
- Distinguish forced flows (liquidations, government sales) from willing flows (corporate treasuries, long-term holders)
- Predict which $1B in selling creates -2% vs -15% moves
- Identify exhaustion points where forced selling is complete
Prerequisites: Complete Modules 1-3 (synthesizes all prior concepts)
Start Module 4: Forced vs Willing Flows →
After Level 1: What's Next?
You now understand how markets actually work.
You've replaced retail mental models ("the market thinks," "whales manipulating") with institutional frameworks (marginal clearing levels, arbitrage mechanics, liquidity depth, forced flows).
This is the foundation. Now you need data interpretation skills.
Ready for Level 2?
Level 2 teaches you what data to track and how to interpret it:
- How to read ETF flows (composition, velocity, context)
- How to use exchange reserves correctly (not just "outflow = bullish")
- How to track corporate treasuries, government actions, on-chain metrics
- How to map liquidation clusters and funding rate pressure
- How to interpret sentiment vs positioning
Level 2 requires Analyst subscription ($29/month).
Analyst subscription includes:
- Level 2: Data Interpretation (8 modules)
- Level 3: Analytical Frameworks (6 modules)
- Market briefs (Mon/Wed/Fri)
- Token research reports
Go to Level 2: Data Interpretation →
Upgrade to Analyst ($29/month) →
Or if you're not ready yet:
Questions About Level 1?
How long does Level 1 take?
~60 minutes total if you read straight through. But you'll get more value by reading one module per day and letting concepts sink in.
Do I need prior knowledge?
No. Level 1 assumes you know what Bitcoin is and what an exchange is. That's it. We rebuild everything else from scratch.
Can I skip modules?
You can, but don't. Each module builds on the previous one. Module 4 won't make sense without Modules 1-3.
What if I don't understand something?
Comment on the module or email academy@pierce-pierce.com. We respond to every question.
Is this really free?
Yes. Level 1 is free forever for all subscribers (including free Observer tier).
Start Module 1: What Is Price? →
Pierce & Pierce Academy
Professional-grade market analysis education for serious retail investors