Level 3: Analytical Frameworks

Pierce & Pierce Academy

⏱️ Total time: ~2.5-3 hours across 6 modules
🔒 Access: Analyst subscription required ($29/month)
📊 Format: Text-based with synthesis exercises and dashboard templates

What You'll Learn in Level 3

You have mental models (Level 1) and can read signals (Level 2).

Now learn to combine signals into complete institutional-grade market analysis.

Level 3 teaches synthesis—how to take 5+ individual signals and build one coherent market view with conviction score, timeframe, and invalidation conditions.

You'll learn to:

  • Build composite scores (weighting ETF flows 30%, derivatives 25%, reserves 20%, etc.)
  • Detect regime changes early (before they're consensus)
  • Apply macro context (when Fed policy overrides crypto-specific analysis)
  • Read correlation breakdowns (BTC-altcoin, crypto-equity relationships)
  • Predict rotation patterns (Bitcoin dominance, altseason framework)
  • Run a professional daily analysis routine (10 minutes per day)

By the end of Level 3:

  • ✅ You'll synthesize 5+ signals into single market view (bullish/neutral/bearish with conviction %)
  • ✅ You'll detect regime changes early (not recognize them after they happen)
  • ✅ You'll know when crypto analysis works vs when macro dominates
  • ✅ You'll predict altseason starts (not just notice them mid-run)
  • ✅ You'll run a professional daily market analysis routine in 10 minutes

Prerequisites

You must complete Levels 1-2 before starting Level 3.

Level 3 builds directly on:

  • Level 1: Mental models (forced flows, liquidity, derivatives mechanics)
  • Level 2: Data interpretation (ETF flows, funding, liquidations, reserves, on-chain)

If you haven't completed Level 2 yet: Go to Level 2 →

Access Level 3

Level 3 requires an Analyst subscription ($29/month).

Analyst subscription includes:

  • Level 1 (free, 4 modules)
  • Level 2 (8 modules, data interpretation)
  • Level 3 (6 modules, analytical frameworks)
  • Market briefs (Mon/Wed/Fri)
  • Token research reports

Total: 18 modules, ~6-7 hours of institutional training

Upgrade to Analyst ($29/month) →

Already an Analyst subscriber? Continue below ↓

The 6 Synthesis Frameworks

Module 13: Multi-Signal Synthesis

⏱️ 30 minutes

What you'll learn:
How to weight signals (ETF flows 30%, derivatives 25%, reserves 20%, etc.) and build composite scores. The framework professionals use for "overall market view."

Key questions you'll be able to answer:

  • How do you combine bullish ETF flows + bearish funding rates into one view?
  • What weights should you assign to different signal types?
  • How do you translate composite score (7.2/10) into conviction level and position sizing?

What you'll be able to do:

  • Build weighted composite scoring system (5-7 signal categories)
  • Assign appropriate weights based on current regime
  • Translate scores into conviction levels (low/medium/high)
  • Identify when signals conflict vs when they align

Framework you'll build:

Composite Market Score (0-10 scale)
├─ Flow Analysis (30% weight): ETFs + Reserves + Treasuries
├─ Derivatives (25% weight): Funding + OI + Liquidations
├─ On-Chain (20% weight): UTXO + Active Addresses + Miner Flows
├─ Macro Context (15% weight): Fed Policy + Risk Appetite
└─ Sentiment (10% weight): Positioning vs Sentiment Divergence

Output: Conviction Score (X/10) + Timeframe (D/W/M) + Invalidation

Start Module 13: Multi-Signal Synthesis →

Module 14: Regime Detection

⏱️ 25 minutes

What you'll learn:
Markets operate in regimes (accumulation, markup, distribution, markdown). Learn to identify transitions before they're obvious. Each regime has different rules.

Key questions you'll be able to answer:

  • What signals indicate transition from accumulation to markup?
  • Why does same ETF flow data mean different things in different regimes?
  • How do you identify regime changes before they're consensus?

What you'll be able to do:

  • Identify current market regime (4-phase cycle framework)
  • Detect early signals of regime transition
  • Adjust signal weights based on regime (flows matter more in accumulation, derivatives matter more in markup)
  • Avoid applying wrong-regime playbooks

The 4 Regime Framework:

1. Accumulation (Low volatility, sideways, forced sellers exhausted)
   → Key signals: Reserve outflows, negative funding, long-term holder accumulation
   
2. Markup (Rising prices, increasing volatility, leverage builds)
   → Key signals: ETF inflows, positive funding, OI expansion
   
3. Distribution (High volatility, choppy, willing sellers emerge)
   → Key signals: Reserve inflows, extreme positive funding, whale distribution
   
4. Markdown (Falling prices, forced selling, capitulation)
   → Key signals: Liquidation cascades, negative funding extremes, panic selling

Start Module 14: Regime Detection →

Module 15: Risk-On vs Risk-Off Framework

⏱️ 25 minutes

What you'll learn:
When macro shifts risk-off, crypto correlates with tech stocks. When risk-on, crypto decouples. Learn to read macro signals that override crypto-specific analysis.

Key questions you'll be able to answer:

  • When does Fed policy override crypto-specific bullish signals?
  • How do you identify risk-on vs risk-off regime shifts?
  • Why did crypto pump in 2020-2021 risk-on but crash in 2022 risk-off despite similar ETF flows?

What you'll be able to do:

  • Read Fed policy signals (rate decisions, QT/QE, balance sheet changes)
  • Identify risk-on/risk-off transitions via equity volatility (VIX), credit spreads, dollar strength
  • Know when to weight macro context higher than crypto-specific signals
  • Predict when crypto will correlate with equities vs decouple

Risk Regime Framework:

Risk-On (Crypto decouples, flows dominate)
├─ Fed accommodative (cutting rates, expanding balance sheet)
├─ VIX < 20
├─ Credit spreads tight
└─ Dollar weakening
→ Crypto-specific signals (ETFs, funding, reserves) carry 70%+ weight

Risk-Off (Crypto correlates with equities, macro dominates)
├─ Fed tightening (hiking rates, QT)
├─ VIX > 25
├─ Credit spreads widening
└─ Dollar strengthening
→ Macro signals carry 60%+ weight, crypto signals less reliable

Start Module 15: Risk-On vs Risk-Off Framework →

Module 16: Correlation Analysis

⏱️ 25 minutes

What you'll learn:
Bitcoin-altcoin correlation, crypto-equity correlation, BTC dominance shifts. Learn when correlations break (regime changes) and what it predicts.

Key questions you'll be able to answer:

  • Why do altcoins pump when BTC consolidates (but crash when BTC crashes)?
  • When does crypto decouple from equities vs when do they move in lockstep?
  • How do you use correlation breakdowns to predict regime shifts?

What you'll be able to do:

  • Track BTC-altcoin correlation (when alts lead vs when they lag)
  • Monitor crypto-equity correlation (S&P 500, Nasdaq correlation)
  • Identify correlation breakdowns as regime change signals
  • Use correlation to predict rotation patterns

Correlation Patterns:

BTC-Altcoin Correlation:
├─ High correlation (>0.8) = Risk-off or early bull market
├─ Low correlation (<0.5) = Altseason or late bull market
└─ Negative correlation = Rotation (BTC → alts or alts → BTC)

Crypto-Equity Correlation:
├─ High correlation (>0.7) = Macro-driven, risk-off
├─ Low correlation (<0.3) = Crypto-specific drivers dominate
└─ Breakdown (0.7 → 0.3) = Regime shift signal

Start Module 16: Correlation Analysis →

Module 17: Bitcoin Dominance & Altseason

⏱️ 30 minutes

What you'll learn:
Complete rotation framework. Learn to identify true altseason starts (not fake pumps), predict BTC dominance reversals, and position accordingly.

Key questions you'll be able to answer:

  • How do you distinguish real altseason from fake pumps that reverse in 2 weeks?
  • When does BTC dominance peak (signaling altseason start)?
  • Why do altseasons end so violently (and how to detect early warnings)?

What you'll be able to do:

  • Track BTC dominance as rotation indicator
  • Identify altseason preconditions (BTC consolidation, positive funding, risk-on macro)
  • Distinguish sustainable altseason from short-term rotation
  • Detect altseason exhaustion signals (extreme funding, distribution patterns)

Altseason Framework:

Altseason Preconditions (All must be present):
1. BTC in consolidation (not crashing or pumping hard)
2. BTC dominance at local high (58%+ historically)
3. Positive funding rates (risk appetite present)
4. Risk-on macro (Fed accommodative, VIX low)
5. ETH/BTC breaking out (Ethereum leads altseason)

Altseason Phases:
├─ Phase 1: Large caps (ETH, SOL, major L1s)
├─ Phase 2: Mid caps (DeFi, established alts)
├─ Phase 3: Small caps (high risk, late-stage)
└─ Phase 4: Exhaustion (everything pumps, extreme funding, distribution)

Exit Signals:
- BTC dominance bottoming (rotation back to BTC)
- Funding rates > 0.15% (extreme leverage)
- New retail FOMO (late-stage participants entering)
- BTC breaking consolidation range (reclaims attention)

Start Module 17: Bitcoin Dominance & Altseason →

Module 18: Building Your Institutional Dashboard

⏱️ 25 minutes

What you'll learn:
Build your own institutional-quality dashboard (Google Sheets + free data sources). Track 15-20 signals daily in 10 minutes. Never miss major regime shifts.

Key questions you'll be able to answer:

  • What signals should you track daily vs weekly vs monthly?
  • How do you organize data for quick pattern recognition?
  • What's the minimum viable routine for professional-grade analysis?

What you'll be able to do:

  • Build Google Sheets dashboard tracking key signals
  • Implement 10-minute daily routine (check signals, update scores, note changes)
  • Set up alerts for regime-change signals
  • Run weekly synthesis (30-minute deep review)

Dashboard Structure:

Daily Tracker (10 min routine):
├─ Flow Signals (3 min)
│   ├─ ETF flows (Farside)
│   ├─ Exchange reserves (CoinGlass)
│   └─ Corporate treasury updates
├─ Derivatives Signals (3 min)
│   ├─ Funding rates (CoinGlass)
│   ├─ Open Interest (CoinGlass)
│   └─ Liquidation clusters
├─ On-Chain Signals (2 min)
│   ├─ UTXO age (Glassnode)
│   └─ Exchange netflows
└─ Macro Context (2 min)
    ├─ Fed events (calendar check)
    ├─ VIX level
    └─ DXY (dollar strength)

Weekly Review (30 min):
├─ Regime assessment (which phase are we in?)
├─ Correlation analysis (BTC-alts, crypto-equities)
├─ Composite score trend (improving or deteriorating?)
└─ Next week's key events

Template provided: Google Sheets dashboard with formulas and data source links

Start Module 18: Building Your Institutional Dashboard →

After Level 3: What's Next?

You now think and analyze like an institutional desk.

You can:

  • Synthesize multiple signals into coherent market view
  • Detect regime changes before they're obvious
  • Weight signals appropriately based on macro context
  • Predict rotation patterns (BTC dominance, altseason)
  • Run a professional daily analysis routine in 10 minutes

But can you execute on your analysis without emotional override?

Ready for Level 4?

Level 4 teaches execution discipline (Coming Q1 2025):

  • Position sizing frameworks (translating conviction into size)
  • Entry/exit discipline (when to act on analysis)
  • Drawdown management (what to do when you're wrong)
  • Behavioral trap avoidance (FOMO, revenge trading, anchoring)
  • Trading journal system (tracking decisions, not just outcomes)
  • Advanced integration (complete institutional workflow)

Level 4 requires Insider subscription ($99/month).

Insider subscription includes:

  • Levels 1-3 (everything in Analyst)
  • Level 4 (execution discipline, coming Q1 2025)
  • All future modules (no additional cost)
  • Market briefs (Mon/Wed/Fri)
  • Token research reports

Go to Level 4 →

Upgrade to Insider ($99/month) →

Or if you want to practice Level 3 frameworks more:

Return to Academy Overview →

Questions About Level 3?

How long does Level 3 take?
~2.5-3 hours for all 6 modules. Recommended: 1-2 modules per week over 3-4 weeks, with practice between sessions.

Do I need to complete modules in order?
Yes. Module 13 (Multi-Signal Synthesis) is foundation for everything else. Module 18 (Dashboard) should be last (integrates all prior modules).

Can I use this for trading?
These are analytical frameworks, not trading signals. We teach synthesis and regime detection. What you do with that analysis is up to you.

What if I'm overwhelmed by tracking 15-20 signals daily?
Start with 5-7 core signals (ETF flows, funding, reserves, BTC dominance, VIX). Add more as you build routine.

Not an Analyst subscriber yet?

Upgrade to Analyst ($29/month) →

Includes Levels 1-3 (18 modules total) + market briefs + token research reports.

Pierce & Pierce Academy
Professional-grade market analysis education for serious retail investors