Monday Market Brief - 27 October 2025

Monday, October 27, 2025 | 8:00 AM ET

Bitcoin just delivered the exact CPI scenario we called on Wednesday - and it's only getting started.

Bitcoin: $115,736 (+5.7% 24h) • Ethereum: $4,207 (+4.9% 24h) • Solana: $203 (+6.4% 24h)

POSITIONING VERDICT
✅ Regime: Constructive (clean leverage, positive flows, macro aligned)
🎯 Our Approach: Watching $112–113k for potential entries; cautious above $117k

Jump to Levels • Flows • Derivatives • Scenarios • Risks • Week Ahead

🎯 MARKET SUMMARY

Thursday's CPI scenario analysis played out with precision. Inflation printed 3.0% YoY vs 3.1% consensus—the soft print we mapped to "$113k+ challenge." Bitcoin moved from $111k Friday to $116k Sunday, validating the directional call despite 48-hour lag in initial response.

Key Structural Shift: Fear & Greed flipped from 27 (Fear) Thursday to 51 (Neutral) Monday—fastest 72-hour sentiment reversal since March 2024. Meanwhile, $485M in 24h liquidations (+415% spike) flushed overleveraged longs, creating cleaner market structure.

Setup: BTC −8.2% from ATH ($126,080); support $112k, resistance $117–118k unlocks retest. Macro aligned: 10Y yield −3.3%, S&P at ATH, Fed easing Nov 6–7.

Primary Risk: Daily close below $112k invalidates structure and signals $108k retest.