Monday Market Brief - 24 November 2025
Fear Hit 10. Zero Cycle Top Indicators Triggered. What Now?
Data Verified: Nov 24, 2025 | Price: CoinGecko | Fear & Greed: Alternative.me | ETF Flows: Farside Investors | Cycle Indicators: CoinGlass | Derivatives: CoinGlass
At a Glance
| Metric | Reading | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Price | $86,757 | –31% from ATH, +5.6% from Friday’s $82K low |
| Fear & Greed | 19 (Extreme Fear) | Recovering from 10 Saturday — near-COVID lows |
| Cycle Peak Indicators | 0/30 triggered | No top signals firing |
| ETF Flow (Fri) | +$238.4M | First positive after week of outflows |
| BTC Dominance | 58.5% | Flight to quality continues |
| Funding Rate | –0.0003% | Neutral — leverage flushed |
Scenario Update:
- Scenario A (Mid-cycle correction): 65% ← up from 60%
- Scenario B (Cycle structure changed): 25% ← down from 30%
- Scenario C (Extended bear): 10% unchanged
What Happened
Bitcoin crashed from $104K to $82K last week. Fear & Greed hit 10 on Saturday — a reading only seen during COVID (March 2020) and FTX collapse (November 2022). Liquidations cleared $1B+ in leveraged positions. Crypto Twitter declared the bull market dead.
Then Friday’s ETF flows flipped positive. Saturday’s sentiment started recovering. And when we checked the cycle indicators?
Zero out of thirty triggered.
Not one.
The Sentiment Picture
Fear & Greed trajectory:
| Date | Reading | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| Now (Nov 24) | 19 | Extreme Fear |
| Yesterday | 13 | Extreme Fear |
| Last week | 14 | Extreme Fear |
| Last month | 37 | Fear |
| Saturday low | 10 | Extreme Fear |
Historical context for sub-15 readings:
| Event | F&G Low | What Followed |
|---|---|---|
| COVID crash (Mar 2020) | 8 | Doubled by EOY, ATH April 2021 |
| FTX collapse (Nov 2022) | 10 | +350% over 16 months |
| This week | 10 | ? |
About 63% of sub-10 readings preceded positive 30-day returns. That’s better than a coin flip, but not a guarantee. Sub-15 readings identify bottom zones, not immediate bottom ticks — sentiment can stay extreme longer than expected.
ETF Flows: The Reversal
| Date | Flow |
|---|---|
| Nov 21 | +$238.4M |
| Nov 20 | –$903.2M |
| Nov 19 | +$75.4M |
| Nov 18 | –$372.8M |
| Nov 17 | –$254.6M |
| Cumulative | $57.6B |
Note: Daily flow figures vary by source timing/cutoff. Farside Investors data used throughout.
Friday’s inflows came from FBTC (+$108M), BTC mini (+$84.9M), GBTC (+$61.5M), ARKB (+$39.1M). Notably, IBIT saw –$122M even as the aggregate turned positive — rotation within the ETF complex, not just one-way flow.
The bigger picture: $57.6B cumulative inflows since launch. One bad week doesn’t erase that.
Derivatives: The Reset
Friday’s liquidation cascade flushed the leverage. Here’s what’s left:
| Metric | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| BTC Open Interest | $60.01B | Stable (+1.2% 24h) |
| Funding Rate | –0.0003% | Flat — no directional crowding |
| Long/Short Ratio | 48% / 52% | Slight short bias |
| 24h Liquidations | $66.23M (BTC) | Cooling off |
When funding is neutral and OI stabilizes after a flush, the market has reset. No guarantee of direction — but the speculative froth is gone.
Cycle Indicators: Why This Matters
CoinGlass tracks 30 metrics that historically light up at cycle tops. Current status: 0/30 triggered.
Closest to triggering:
| Indicator | Current | Trigger | Progress |
|---|---|---|---|
| Puell Multiple | 1.35 | ≥2.50 | 54% |
| Bitcoin Rainbow | 2 | ≥5 | 40% |
| ETF-to-BTC Ratio | 8.5% | ≤3.5% | 41% |
| NUPL | 0.53 | ≥0.75 | 70.7% |
Nowhere near:
| Indicator | Current | Trigger | Progress |
|---|---|---|---|
| AHR999 Top Escape | 5.83 | ≤0.45 | Nowhere close |
| MVRV Z-Score | 1.06 | ≥5 | 21% |
| Days of ETF Outflows | 1 | ≥10 | 10% |
| Bubble Index | 13.48 | ≥80 | 17% |
CBBI (Crypto Bull Run Index): 59/100 — threshold for blow-off top is ≥90.
Every prior cycle top lit up multiple indicators simultaneously. Today? Zero. This looks like mid-cycle correction behavior, not cycle peak.
Institutional Positioning
Q3 13F filings (positions as of Sept 30) showed institutions adding, not fleeing:
| Institution | Position | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Harvard Endowment | $442.8M IBIT | +257% (now largest U.S. equity holding) |
| Abu Dhabi (Al Warda) | $517.6M IBIT | +230% |
These filings reflect positions before the recent correction — but directionally confirm institutional rotation into spot ETFs over leveraged proxies.
Meanwhile, Strategy raised $21B YTD 2025 through seven securities. The MSTR stock crashed 40%, but the capital markets machine kept building. Whether that structure survives is an open question — the preferred dividend obligations exceed operating cash flow. What’s observable is that they’re adapting, not capitulating.
Week Ahead: Thanksgiving Volatility Setup
Why this week is different:
- Thin liquidity: Institutional desks on holiday. With fewer market makers active, order books thin and smaller flows move price more violently.
- Compressed data: Government shutdown backlog means three major releases in two days
- Historical pattern: Thanksgiving weeks have seen outsized BTC moves due to thin order books
| Day | Event | Prior | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Nov 25 | Retail Sales (delayed) | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Tue Nov 25 | PPI (delayed) | –0.1% | 0.3% |
| Tue Nov 25 | Consumer Confidence | 94.6 | 93.4 |
| Wed Nov 26 | Jobless Claims | 220K | 225K |
| Thu Nov 27 | Thanksgiving | — | Markets closed |
| Mon Dec 1 | ISM Manufacturing | 48.7% | — |
Dec 1 is the big one: Fed QT officially ends. That’s headwind removal, not immediate catalyst — but the liquidity backdrop shifts.
Key Levels
| Level | Significance |
|---|---|
| $82,175 | Friday’s low — must hold |
| $86,757 | Current price |
| $95,591 | 7d high — first resistance |
| $100,000 | Psychological level |
| $126,080 | ATH — 31% above |
The Bottom Line
Fear hit COVID-era lows. Leverage got flushed. ETF flows reversed. And zero cycle top indicators triggered.
This doesn’t mean “buy the dip” — it means the data doesn’t support “bull market over.” Mid-cycle corrections feel brutal. They’re supposed to. That’s how weak hands get shaken out before the next leg.
Thanksgiving week will be thin and potentially volatile. Watch the $82K level. Watch Dec 1 for the QT end.
The dashboard that called every prior cycle top is silent. Until that changes, this is data-consistent with mid-cycle distress — not cycle exhaustion.
Pattern recognition, not prediction.
This brief provides educational market commentary. It does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk. Past patterns do not guarantee future results.
Pierce & Pierce Market Brief
Monday, November 24, 2025
Sources: CoinGecko | CoinGlass | Alternative.me | Farside Investors | MarketWatch | SEC EDGAR 13F filings
Connect: pierce-pierce.ghost.io | @PiercePierceNYC
