RWA Paradox: Hottest Narrative. Coldest Tokens.
A comprehensive scoring & analysis of RWA infrastructure tokens
Pierce & Pierce Research | December 8, 2025
Data verified: December 8, 2025 | Prices: CoinGecko | TVL: RWA.xyz
Executive Summary
The RWA sector presents a paradox: institutional adoption is accelerating while most RWA tokens have collapsed 50% to 99% from their highs. This report analyzes 10 leading RWA infrastructure tokens to identify which are genuinely undervalued versus structurally broken.
Key Findings:
- On-chain RWA excluding stablecoins has reached $18.4B:
- Tokenized Treasuries lead at $9.2B
- Private credit represents roughly $2.2B
- BlackRock’s BUIDL fund alone holds $2.03B
Most RWA governance tokens returned –26% to –79% between January 2024 and April 2025. As of December 2025, they remain well below those highs.
Across 10 RWA infrastructure tokens analyzed:
- 7 out of 10 have governance-only or weak value capture
- 5 out of 10 have significant unlock overhangs
- Regulatory licenses and direct value capture are key differentiators
Bottom line: Institutions are buying products like tokenized Treasuries and credit. Retail is left with tokens whose economics often don’t track those products.
This framework weighs licenses, value capture, scale, supply, and liquidity rather than narrative alone.
Disclosure: Pierce & Pierce Research and the author hold positions in IXS and ONDO. Framework applied consistently across all tokens.
Quick Scan Summary
| Token | P-Score™ | Key Strength | Key Risk | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONDO | 78 | Market leader, SEC engagement | Governance only, major unlock Jan 2026 | 🟢 |
| IXS | 76 | Dual licenses, 100% circulating | Low liquidity | 🟢 |
| SYRUP | 72 | 25% fee buybacks, $1.48B TVL | Unsecured lending | 🟢 |
| CFG | 66 | $1.37B TVL, JAAA fund success | Weak value capture, 3% annual inflation | 🟡 |
| CPOOL | 62 | Institutional borrowers | Flat TVL | 🟡 |
| OM | 58 | VARA license, DAMAC deal | Trust destroyed after 99% crash | 🟠 |
| POLYX | 56 | FINRA partnerships, compliance | No TVL disclosure, inflationary | 🟠 |
| PLUME | 56 | Apollo backing | 80% unlock overhang (Jan 2026) | 🟠 |
| GFI | 56 | Premium fund access | Minimal scale | 🟠 |
| RIO | 50 | Verified partnerships | Older deals, unclear scale | 🟠 |
Signal Key:
- 🟢 Prime Asymmetry (P-Score™ 70+)
- 🟡 Active Monitor (P-Score™ 60-69)
- 🟠 Structural Concerns (P-Score™ <60)
The Securitize Problem: The Best Pipes Have No Token
The biggest RWA infrastructure players have no investable token. This is the sector’s central paradox for retail investors.
| Platform | Product | TVL | Token? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Securitize | BUIDL (BlackRock) | $2.03B | ❌ No |
| Circle | USYC (Hashnote) | $1.30B | ❌ No |
| Franklin Templeton | BENJI | $821M | ❌ No |
| Ondo | OUSG + USDY | $1.47B | ✅ ONDO |
| Maple | syrupUSDC | $1.48B | ✅ SYRUP |
| Centrifuge | JAAA, JTRSY | $1.31B | ✅ CFG |
You cannot get direct on-chain exposure to the most successful RWA infrastructure. The investable tokens represent protocols with strong products but smaller market share than the tokenless giants.
Scoring Methodology
| Category | Weight | What We Measure |
|---|---|---|
| Regulatory Status | 20 pts | Actual licenses vs exemptions vs compliance frameworks |
| Institutional Adoption | 20 pts | Verified partnerships with major institutions |
| Token Value Capture | 20 pts | Fee sharing, buybacks, governance, utility |
| Scale (AUM/TVL) | 15 pts | Verified platform metrics |
| Supply Structure | 15 pts | Percent circulating, unlock schedule |
| Liquidity | 10 pts | Daily volume, exchange listings, depth |
Total: 100 points
Scores are relative within this 10-token universe, not absolute ratings versus all of crypto.
The Pierce Score™
Our proprietary Pierce Score™ (P-Score™) rates RWA infrastructure tokens from 0-100 across six critical dimensions. Unlike simple market cap rankings or momentum indicators, the P-Score identifies structural advantages that create asymmetric opportunities.
P-Score Ranges:
- 70+ = Prime Asymmetry
- 60-69 = Active Monitor
- <60 = Structural Concerns
Scores are recalculated quarterly as fundamentals evolve.
Pierce Score™ Matrix
All prices as of December 8, 2025
| Token | Price | Reg | Inst | Value | Scale | Supply | Liq | P-Score | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONDO | $0.47 | 16 | 20 | 8 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 78 | 🟢 |
| IXS | $0.18 | 20 | 16 | 12 | 9 | 15 | 4 | 76 | 🟢 |
| SYRUP | $0.27 | 8 | 14 | 18 | 14 | 12 | 6 | 72 | 🟢 |
| CFG | $0.13 | 10 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 66 | 🟡 |
| CPOOL | $0.14 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 62 | 🟡 |
| OM | $0.073 | 16 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 58 | 🟠 |
| POLYX | $0.060 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 56 | 🟠 |
| PLUME | $0.020 | 10 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 56 | 🟠 |
| GFI | $0.25 | 8 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 4 | 56 | 🟠 |
| RIO | $0.16 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 50 | 🟠 |
Token Analysis
Prime Asymmetry (P-Score™ 70+)
ONDO Finance — P-Score™ 78/100 🟢
Price: $0.47 | Market Cap: $1.50B | TVL: $1.86B | Circulating: 32%
ONDO is the market leader in tokenized Treasuries. USDY and OUSG command significant market share. Institutional validation is unmatched with BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, and World Liberty Financial partnerships all verified.
Why ONDO’s P-Score™ is 78 despite weak tokenomics:
Market leadership plus regulatory engagement. Acquired Oasis Pro Markets (announced July 2025, completed October 2025), gaining SEC-licensed broker-dealer, ATS, and transfer agent. Direct SEC Crypto Task Force meetings in April 2025. Submitted formal tokenized securities roadmap in December 2025.
The catch: Governance-only token with no fee capture. Only 32% circulating with 3.16B of 10B total supply out.
Unlock Schedule (Verified):
ONDO follows an annual cliff unlock structure, not quarterly unlocks:
- January 18, 2025: 1.94B tokens unlocked (~$2.4B at the time), causing immediate 11% price drop
- January 18, 2026 (IMMINENT): Next major cliff unlock of ~1.94B ONDO (~19% of total supply, ~61% of current market cap at current prices)
- Linear vesting continues through 2027-2028 for Ecosystem Growth allocation (52% of total supply)
The allocation breaks down as: Ecosystem Growth (52.1%), Protocol Development (33%), Private Sales (12.9%), and Community Access Sale (2%). Private Sales and Protocol Development allocations vest linearly over 36 months following the January 2025 cliff.
In other words, the product looks like BlackRock, the token trades like a growth stock with heavy dilution.
IXS (IX Swap / InvestaX) — P-Score™ 76/100 🟢
Price: $0.18 | Market Cap: $32M | Platform AUM: $88M
IXS holds verified licenses in two major jurisdictions. Bahamas DARE Act via SCB registry from March 2025. Singapore MAS CMS/RMO via InvestaX. The December 4, 2025 Franklin Templeton partnership puts a $1.66T asset manager on the platform with a tokenized money market fund.
The core thesis:
IXS trades at 0.36x platform AUM. That’s $32M market cap versus $88M AUM. With 100% tokens circulating (180M/180M fully vested), there’s no unlock overhang. This combination is unusual in crypto, where most protocols trade at premiums to AUM/TVL and still face significant unlocks ahead.
Regulatory Position (20/20): Dual-jurisdiction license stack is verifiable in official registries. Strongest regulatory moat among tokens we cover.
Liquidity (4/10): Extremely low at roughly $200K to $300K daily volume. Large positions difficult to build or exit.
SYRUP (Maple Finance) — P-Score™ 72/100 🟢
Price: $0.27 | Market Cap: $308M | Total AUM: ~$4B | syrupUSDC TVL: $1.48B
Maple Finance has emerged as a leading institutional credit marketplace. Total AUM grew approximately 10x in the past year. syrupUSDC alone accounts for $1.48B.
Value Capture (18/20): SYRUP’s key differentiator. 25% fee buyback mechanism from Q3 2025. MIP-019 passed with 91% approval to end staking rewards and redirect 25% of all revenue to buybacks and liquidity. One of the strongest value capture mechanisms in RWA.
Scale (14/15): Over $830M in originated loans to Jane Street, Flow Traders, Wintermute. Revenue averaging $1M+ per month. November 2025 buyback purchased 2M tokens.
Regulatory (8/20): Operates under DeFi exemptions rather than formal licenses.
Supply Structure (Verified): SYRUP migrated from MPL token (1 MPL = 100 SYRUP). The token is essentially fully unlocked with ~1.14B circulating. Expected supply by September 2026 is ~1.23B due to ongoing emissions (5% per annum for 3 years per treasury recapitalization).
Primary risk is unsecured lending. This model shines when spreads are wide and defaults contained. It dies in major credit events. Historical defaults manageable, but Orthogonal Trading’s $54M default in November 2022 serves as a warning.
Active Monitor (P-Score™ 60-69)
Centrifuge (CFG) — P-Score™ 66/100 🟡
Price: $0.13 | Market Cap: $77M | TVL: $1.37B
Centrifuge pioneered “real-world asset” terminology and achieved 2,600% TVL growth in 2025. TVL spreads across CLOs and private credit vaults, not just Treasuries. Grove Finance allocated $250M to Janus Henderson CLO strategies.
Scale vs Valuation: $77M market cap against $1.37B TVL is striking. But CFG’s value capture is weaker than TVL suggests. Governance remains primary utility despite V3.1 fee switch.
Supply Structure (Verified — UPDATED):
CFG underwent significant changes in 2025:
- May 2025: EVM migration launched new ERC20 CFG on Ethereum, replacing legacy CFG and WCFG
- Total Supply Post-Migration: 680M CFG (includes 115M newly minted for strategic initiatives)
- New Vesting: 100M CFG vesting linearly over 4 years starting May 2025 (~25M/year)
- Ongoing Inflation: 3% annual inflation accruing to Centrifuge DAO Treasury
- Migration Deadline: November 30, 2025
Core team members have 48-month lockups with 12-month cliffs. Monthly unlocks of ~3.4M CFG (Team + Foundation) continue through 2026.
Primary risk: Competition from ONDO and BlackRock BUIDL. CFG’s strength is private credit infrastructure, not Treasury tokenization.
CPOOL (Clearpool) — P-Score™ 62/100 🟡
Price: $0.14 | Market Cap: $110M | Loans Originated: $660M+ | TVL: ~$29M
Institutional unsecured lending niche with borrowers including Jane Street, Flow Traders, Wintermute.
Value Capture (14/20): Buyback program reinstated late 2025. Q3 2024 saw 482,458 CPOOL burned, a 76% quarterly increase, using 50% of protocol fees.
Scale (10/15): TVL flat at approximately $29M despite strong origination. KODA custody partnership from November 2025 and Korean exchange listings boosted liquidity.
Supply Structure (Verified): CPOOL is approximately 91% unlocked (~913M of 1B). Remaining unlocks are small: ~6.9M CPOOL monthly (Reserves + Rewards) through late 2026. All investor and team tokens fully vested as of October 2023.
Primary risk: Flat TVL despite origination suggests limited organic growth. Competes directly with Maple/SYRUP.
Structural Concerns (P-Score™ <60)
MANTRA (OM) — P-Score™ 58/100 🟠
Price: $0.073 | Market Cap: $83M | Down from ATH: 99%
On April 14, 2025, OM collapsed 90% in one hour. Price went from $6 to $0.45, wiping approximately $5.5B in market cap. Team cited forced exchange liquidations. Critics alleged insider dumping.
What’s real: Dubai VARA license, one of few RWA chains with meaningful regulatory approval. $1B DAMAC Group partnership from January 2025 for tokenizing real estate, hospitality, and data centers remains active. Team has burned 300M+ OM including 150M from co-founder allocation.
What’s broken: Supply doubled to 1.77B in October 2024 with shift to inflationary model, before the crash. Trust deficit is the core issue. 17 wallets moved 43.6M OM worth $227M to exchanges before the collapse.
Binary outcome: At current prices, it’s priced for failure. Recovery depends entirely on trust rebuild plus DAMAC execution.
Polymesh (POLYX) — P-Score™ 56/100 🟠
Price: $0.060 | Market Cap: $73M | Circulating: ~1.01B (uncapped supply)
Purpose-built permissioned blockchain for regulated securities. Embeds compliance, identity, and settlement finality at protocol level.
Regulatory Position (14/20): FINMA utility token classification. Partnerships with FINRA-regulated entities including REtokens Capital broker-dealer from August 2025, Zodia Custody with Standard Chartered/Northern Trust backing from February 2025. AlphaPoint integration from August 2024.
Supply Structure (Verified): POLYX follows an asymptotic issuance curve with no fixed supply cap:
- Annual minting capped at 14% of total supply until reaching 1B POLYX
- After 1B threshold: Fixed issuance of 140M POLYX per year
- Current circulating: ~1.01B POLYX
- Target staking ratio: 70% (currently ~50% staked)
- Governance/utility token with no buyback or fee distribution
Core weakness: No disclosed TVL. Inflationary model dilutes holders. Governance remains primary utility.
Primary risk: Infrastructure partnerships without on-chain product scale.
PLUME — P-Score™ 56/100 🟠
Price: $0.020 | FDV: ~$420M | Circulating: 20%
Early-stage L1 for RWA tokenization. Apollo Global Management made “seven-figure” strategic investment in April 2025. Validation but modest for a $700B+ fund. Grayscale added to assets under consideration. Reported 18M testnet wallets and 200+ projects building.
Supply Structure (Verified — UPDATED):
- Current: Only 20% circulating (2B of 10B max supply)
- June 23, 2025: Plume Foundation announced unlocks pushed to January 2026 (6-month delay)
- Allocation: Early Backers (21%), Core Contributors (20%), Foundation, Ecosystem
- Unlock Overhang: 80% of supply remains locked, representing one of the most aggressive unlock profiles we cover
The delay was framed as “reinforced conviction” from investors and team, but the structural overhang remains. Monthly unlocks began in October 2025 for Team, Ecosystem, Foundation, and Early Supporters categories.
Goldfinch (GFI) — P-Score™ 56/100 🟠
Price: $0.25 | Market Cap: $23M
Goldfinch Prime from early 2025 offers institutional-grade private credit access via Ares, Apollo, Golub. Managers with $1T+ combined AUM. Target returns 9% to 12% net.
Core weakness: TVL contracted significantly from 2022 highs. $23M market cap reflects limited current scale. Thin trading volume limits position sizing.
Realio (RIO) — P-Score™ 50/100 🟠
Price: $0.16 | Market Cap: $16M
Layer-1 chain built on Cosmos SDK for real estate and private equity tokenization.
Verified partnerships: Valentus Capital with $250M+ fund from September 2020, tZERO SEC-registered ATS with $300M+ tokenized assets, Algorand integration.
Core weakness: Partnerships are verified but date to 2020-2021. Current TVL/AUM not prominently disclosed. $16M market cap with limited volume suggests stagnation.
What Actually Matters
These are the two categories that carry the most weight in the P-Score™ and explain most of the spread between Prime Asymmetry and Structural Concerns.
Regulatory Moats
| Token | License/Status |
|---|---|
| IXS | Bahamas DARE + Singapore MAS (verified) |
| ONDO | SEC-licensed broker-dealer via Oasis Pro |
| OM | Dubai VARA license (maintained post-crash) |
| Others | Primarily exemptions or offshore structures |
Value Capture Mechanisms
| Mechanism | Tokens | Strength |
|---|---|---|
| Fee buybacks | SYRUP (25%), CPOOL (50% of fees) | Strong |
| Fee burns | IXS, OM | Moderate |
| Governance only | ONDO, CFG, GFI | Weak |
| Utility fees | CFG, RIO, POLYX | Moderate |
Critical Data Points
Unlock Schedule Summary
| Token | Next Major Event | Impact | Circulating |
|---|---|---|---|
| ONDO | Jan 18, 2026 | ~1.94B tokens (~61% of current mcap) | 32% |
| IXS | N/A | Fully vested | 100% |
| SYRUP | Ongoing emissions | ~5% annual inflation | ~93% |
| CFG | Monthly (Team/Foundation) | ~3.4M CFG/month + 3% inflation | ~84% |
| CPOOL | Monthly (Reserves/Rewards) | ~6.9M CPOOL/month | ~91% |
| PLUME | Jan 2026 (delayed from July 2025) | Major unlock begins | 20% |
| POLYX | Continuous | 14% annual until 1B, then 140M/year | Uncapped |
Revenue & Buyback Execution
Maple Finance (SYRUP):
- Monthly revenue: $1M+ average
- November 2025: Bought 2M tokens
- Impact: Removing ~2% supply annually via buybacks
Clearpool (CPOOL):
- Q3 2024: Burned 482,458 tokens
- 76% increase from Q2
- Challenge: Flat TVL at $29M
Current Valuation Gaps
| Token | Market Cap | TVL/AUM | Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|
| IXS | $32M | $88M | 0.36x |
| CFG | $77M | $1.37B | 0.056x |
| ONDO | $1.50B | $1.86B | 0.81x |
| SYRUP | $308M | $1.48B | 0.21x |
Traditional asset managers often trade at 2% to 5% of AUM. Most RWA tokens trade well below those levels, and their tokens frequently capture far less of the underlying economics.
Risk Lessons: The OM Collapse
April 13-14, 2025 Timeline:
- Price: $6.32 to $0.49 (90% drop in hours)
- Market cap destroyed: ~$5.5B
- Trigger: Forced liquidations on Bybit
Pre-Crash Signals:
- On-chain analysis shows 17 wallets moved 43.6M OM (~$227M) to exchanges in the days before the collapse
- Team controlled 90% of circulating supply
- Telegram group temporarily shut down
Current Status:
- Trading at $0.073 (99% below $9 ATH)
- DAMAC partnership active but trust destroyed
- Buyback and burn program announced
Lesson: Even licensed projects with real partnerships can implode from liquidity and concentration issues.
Competitive Reality
Unsecured Lending Battle
Maple and Clearpool compete for the same institutional borrowers:
- Both serve Jane Street, Wintermute, Flow Traders
- Maple dominates: $1.48B TVL
- Clearpool struggles: $29M TVL
Treasury Tokenization Leaders (No Tokens)
- Securitize/BlackRock BUIDL: $2.03B
- Circle USYC: $1.30B
- Franklin Templeton BENJI: $821M
This leaves ONDO as largest with a token at $1.47B.
How to Use This Framework
For analyzing RWA tokens:
- Use P-Score™ plus narrative, not score alone
- Ask two questions: Who’s licensed? Who gets the fees?
- Compare market cap to TVL/AUM, then ask whether the token actually captures any of that value (via fees, buybacks, or burns)
- Treat P-Score™ 70+ as prime asymmetry within this universe
- Time horizon: 12 to 36 months for infrastructure plays
- Watch unlocks closely — particularly ONDO (Jan 2026) and PLUME (Jan 2026)
Framework Summary
Prime Asymmetry (P-Score™ 70+):
- ONDO (78): Market leader, institutional validation, governance-only token, major unlock Jan 18, 2026
- IXS (76): Regulatory moat, trading below AUM, 100% circulating, liquidity constrained
- SYRUP (72): Strong value capture, $1.48B TVL, unsecured lending risk
Active Monitor (P-Score™ 60-69):
- CFG (66): $1.37B TVL, weak token value capture, 3% annual inflation
- CPOOL (62): Institutional borrowers, flat TVL growth
Structural Concerns (P-Score™ <60):
- OM (58): VARA license vs destroyed trust
- POLYX (56): FINRA partnerships but no TVL, inflationary model
- PLUME (56): Apollo backing, 80% unlock overhang beginning Jan 2026
- GFI (56): Premium fund access, minimal scale
- RIO (50): Verified but dated partnerships
Why Large-Cap “RWA” Tokens Are Excluded
CoinGecko’s $55B RWA category includes tokens we exclude for clarity:
| Token | Market Cap | Why Excluded |
|---|---|---|
| LINK | ~$9.5B | Oracle infrastructure, serves DeFi broadly |
| XLM | ~$7.8B | Payment rail, general purpose |
| XDC | ~$919M | Trade finance L1, general infrastructure |
| XAUT/PAXG | ~$3B | Tokenized gold commodities |
| QNT | ~$1.3B | Enterprise interoperability |
This report focuses on tokens representing governance or utility in protocols primarily focused on RWA tokenization.
Sources
All data sourced December 8, 2025:
- RWA.xyz: Asset values, TVL by product
- CoinGecko/CoinMarketCap: Prices, market caps
- DeFiLlama: Protocol TVL verification
- DropsTab/Tokenomist: Vesting schedules, unlock calendars
- Company announcements: Partnership verification
- Maple Finance Forum: MIP governance proposals
- Centrifuge Docs: Migration and tokenomics details
- On-chain data: Token movements, unlock schedules
Disclosure
Pierce & Pierce Research and the author hold positions in IXS and ONDO. These holdings may create bias despite consistent methodology. Conduct your own research.
This report is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing herein constitutes financial, investment, or trading advice. P-Scores™ reflect framework-based analysis, not recommendations to buy, sell, or hold.
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