Solana's $69M ETF Debut Just Happened: BlackRock Didn't Show Up

TL;DR: SOL at $197, new ETF pulled $69M day one (strongest 2025 debut), down 33% from ATH but up 6% on week. BlackRock absent = flows might disappoint vs BTC/ETH. Base: $180–$210. Bull: $240–$280 if BTC.D <59% + sustained ETF demand.

Solana trades at $197 this morning—down 33% from January's $293 all-time high but holding steady after yesterday's Bitwise ETF launch pulled $69.5 million in day-one inflows. That's the strongest ETF debut of 2025, beating every altcoin launch this year. There's just one problem: BlackRock—the firm that dominated Bitcoin ETF flows with $28 billion in 2025—didn't launch a Solana product. Without BlackRock's institutional firepower, SOL's ETF might follow Ethereum's path: decent flows that don't move the needle. Market participants have 30-60 days to observe whether other issuers can compensate for BlackRock's absence.

Expected outcome: $214 (+9% from $197), but near-term consolidation $180–$210 most likely

Best-case if BTC dominance breaks + sustained ETF flows: $260 (+32% from $197)

DeFi advantage: $8.4 billion in total value locked—3rd largest DeFi ecosystem behind Ethereum and Tron, with actual usage driving network fees.

What's TVL? Total Value Locked measures how much capital sits in DeFi protocols on a blockchain. Higher TVL = more actual usage, not just speculation.

Research Date: October 29, 2025, 9:00 AM ET | Read Time: 9 minutes