SUI: High-Performance L1 with $1.98B TVL - 64% Locked Supply Meets 8× Leverage Structure

Move-based Layer-1 blockchain with $1.13B stablecoin liquidity in Bitcoin Season consolidation

What is Sui? Move-based Layer-1 blockchain (originally Meta's Diem). $1.98B TVL with $1.13B stablecoins = real DeFi activity beyond speculation.

Setup: $2.45, −27% (30d), −33.9% (90d), +27% (1y). MCap $8.90B vs FDV $24.54B (2.76×). Circulating 3.62B / 10B (36.26%). Futures $2.31B / Spot $287M = 8× notional ratio. Long-skewed (Binance 2.16:1, OKX 2.06:1). Bitcoin Season: BTC.D 59.81%, Alt 37, F&G 27.

Key levels: Monthly unlocks 52-56M SUI ($128-137M) through May 2026, dropping to 22-23M ($55-57M) Jun-Aug. OI $788M (8.9% MCap).

Scenario: Base—$3.20-4.00 (+31-63%) IF unlocks absorbed + BTC.D <58%. Bearish—$1.80-2.00 (−18% to −27%) IF pressure continues. Bullish—needs cycle rotation (3.5% compound).

Risks: 64% locked with monthly unlocks (40%), 8× leverage + long skew (35%), Bitcoin Season (25%).