Strategy Special: The $21B Pivot

Crypto Twitter spent the weekend obsessing over a fabricated JP Morgan short position and a 40% MSTR crash. The actual story is different: Strategy has raised $21B YTD 2025 through seven different securities and is pivoting from equity premium to Bitcoin-backed credit instruments - while institutional flows rotate from leveraged proxies to spot ETFs. Harvard tripled its Bitcoin ETF position. Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth doubled down. This brief explains what the noise concealed and what it means for Bitcoin's cycle.

Data Verified: Nov 24, 2025 | Price: CoinGecko | Fear & Greed: Alternative.me | ETF Flows: Farside Investors | Cycle Indicators: CoinGlass | Derivatives: CoinGlass | DeFi: DeFiLlama

At a Glance

Scenario Update:

• Scenario A (Mid-cycle correction, accumulation window): 65% ← from 60%
• Scenario B (ETFs changed cycle structure): 25% ← from 30%
• Scenario C (Extended bear): 10% unchanged

Read paths: 2 min (this box) | 5 min (bold sections) | 12 min (full brief)

The Consensus Narrative

If you followed crypto Twitter this week, here's what you saw:

MSTR stock crashed 40% from its highs. Strategy's mNAV - the premium investors pay over the value of its Bitcoin holdings - collapsed to below 1.0x for the first time since January 2024. JPMorgan warned that MSCI might exclude Bitcoin treasury companies from major equity indices. Viral posts claimed JPM held a massive short position that would blow up the bank. Boycott campaigns trended. Comparisons to GameStop proliferated.

The narrative wrote itself: Strategy is broken. The leverage is unwinding. The proxy trade is dead.

There was one problem with this narrative.

It was looking at the wrong data.

What the Noise Concealed

While retail debated a nonexistent short position and panicked over stock price declines, Strategy has been executing a major capital raise throughout 2025.

The numbers (per Strategy 8-K filed Nov 17, 2025 - tweet by @Strategy Nov 24):

Let that sink in. While everyone focused on the MSTR stock crash, Strategy had already raised capital at a pace that nearly matches their entire 2024 total ($22.6B) - and we're only in November.

The mNAV collapse wasn't a death sentence.

It was a pivot.

The Adaptation: From Equity Premium to Credit Empire

Here's what actually happened:

The Old Model (Pre-2025):

Strategy issued common stock (MSTR) at a premium to NAV. Investors paid $1.50+ for every $1 of Bitcoin exposure because no regulated alternative existed. Strategy used the premium to buy more Bitcoin, which increased NAV, which justified the premium. Flywheel economics.

The Problem:

When mNAV compressed to 1.0x, the flywheel broke. Issuing stock at no premium means diluting shareholders to buy Bitcoin - not accretive, just expensive.

The Solution:

Pivot to preferred shares and credit instruments. These don't depend on mNAV. They're fixed-income products with 8-10% yields that institutions buy for income, not Bitcoin exposure.

YTD 2025 Capital Raised (per Strategy 8-K filed Nov 17, 2025 - chart posted by @Strategy Nov 24):

Saylor's caption on the Bitcoin backed credit chart this morning: "Probably Nothing."

Credit markets don't move like this unless institutions are already modeling Bitcoin as collateral. We're talking about weekly trading volume, not notional outstanding, but a 29x ramp in ten weeks is still a clear signal of structural uptake. This isn't retail speculation - it's infrastructure building.

Whether the credit pivot succeeds is an open question - the structure carries real refinancing risk and the preferred dividend obligations exceed operating cash flow. What's observable is that they pivoted, not whether it will work. We're documenting behavior, not endorsing outcomes.

The Short That Wasn't

The JPMorgan "short position" that broke financial Twitter?

It doesn't exist.

JPMorgan's 13F filing discloses:

No short position is disclosed in 13F filings - and importantly, 13F filings don't require disclosure of short positions. There are no corresponding Schedule 13D/13G or SHO-related disclosures indicating a large directional short either. In public data, there is simply no evidence of a JPM "kill shot" short. The "massive JPM short" narrative is based on unconfirmed rumors, not SEC filings.

The $117M in puts that fueled the viral narrative? That represents 0.00254% of JP Morgan's $4.6 trillion in assets under management. It's a rounding error, not a position. A hedge, not a bet.

While Twitter debated fake shorts and organized boycotts, the same quarterly SEC 13F filings (positions as of Sept 30) revealed something far more significant:

ETF Flow Reality (Farside Investors, Nov 24):

Nov 21 breakdown: FBTC (+$108M), BTC mini (+$84.9M), GBTC (+$61.5M), ARKB (+$39.1M), BTCO (+$35.8M). IBIT saw –$122M outflows even as the aggregate turned positive.

The noise was a fabricated war against a bank that holds no disclosed short. The signal was a generational rotation from leveraged proxies to direct ETF exposure - and Friday's flow reversal after days of bleeding.

One story trended. The other will matter.

The Macro Context: Why Patient Capital Isn't Panicking

Cross-Asset Snapshot (TradingView, Nov 24)

Key observation: Dollar strength (+1.31%) typically pressures risk assets, yet BTC held $86K support and gold rallied. Risk assets showing resilience.

Crypto Total Market Cap: $2.94T (+0.49% 24h), but –7.06% weekly, –20.68% monthly

DeFi TVL: $115.4B (+1.55% 24h) - capital not fleeing DeFi despite drawdown

The Everything Code

Macro analysts Raoul Pal and Julien Bittel (Global Macro Investor) frame the structural backdrop this way:

GDP growth = population growth + productivity growth + debt growth

Population growth is declining - birth rates peaked in the 1950s. Productivity growth is sluggish. That leaves debt as the only lever.

With government and private sector debt both near 100% of GDP, there isn't enough organic growth to service existing obligations. The only solution is monetization - central banks absorb debt through QE-style operations. This isn't a policy choice. It's structural necessity.

Bittel's bottom line (via X, November 24): "There's still a massive wall of interest that needs to be monetized, far more than GDP can ever cover. Liquidity is literally the only game in town."

The crypto implication: In a world of perpetual currency debasement, Bitcoin's fixed supply becomes increasingly attractive.

Corrections feel brutal in the moment. Then they fade, and the trend resumes.

The 2019 Precedent: Patience Required

Here's the honest history: when the Fed ended QT in September 2019, Bitcoin didn't immediately rally. It fell another 35% over the next three months, from $10K to $7.2K.

The rally only came when the Fed launched full-scale QE in March 2020. Then Bitcoin went from $3.8K to $64K over the following 13 months.

The pattern:

1. QT ends → liquidity drain stops (December 1, 2025)
2. Stabilization → 3-6 months of consolidation
3. QE begins → liquidity expansion drives rally

Translation: December 1 is the starting gun, not the finish line. The headwind is being removed, but the tailwind requires actual expansion. Patient capital understands this timeline.

The Fear That Marks Bottoms

Friday's Fear & Greed hit 11. Saturday dropped to 10. Today it's recovered to 19 -still Extreme Fear, but climbing from last week's 14 and last month's 37.

Historical context:

Current reading: 19 - Extreme Fear, recovering from Saturday's low of 10.

According to 10x Research (via analyst report shared November 22), their proprietary index hit a record low below 5, with the 21-day average at 10% - "a level that has consistently marked tactical lows over the years."

The caveat: Extreme fear readings signal bottom territory, not guaranteed rallies. About 63% of sub-10 readings preceded positive 30-day returns, but gains were often modest and followed by consolidation.

The Liquidation Reset

Friday's liquidation cascade was brutal. The aftermath is telling.

Current derivatives state (CoinGlass):

BTC-specific:

The speculative excess has been purged. Leverage has been flushed. Funding neutral signals no directional crowding.

Historical context: In prior cycles (2021, 2024), similar OI/liquidation resets preceded spot-driven advances over the following weeks to months - though timing varied considerably. Pattern recognition, not prediction.

Observable Patterns

The Cycle Dashboard: 0 of 30 Indicators Triggered

This is the data point that separates signal from noise. CoinGlass tracks 30 cycle peak indicators. Current status: 0/30 hit. Average progress: 43.61%.

Closest to triggering:

Nowhere near triggering:

CBBI (Crypto Bull Run Index): 59/100 - threshold is ≥90. Mid-cycle, not blow-off top.

Why this matters: Every prior cycle top lit up multiple indicators simultaneously. Today? Zero out of thirty. This is correction behavior, not top behavior.

Pattern 1: FUD Amplifies at Bottoms, Not Tops

Historical FUD-at-bottoms (prior cycles):

The headlines that feel most apocalyptic often mark the moment patient capital is accumulating.

Pattern 2: Infrastructure Builds During Fear

Institutional positioning revealed in Q3 13F filings (as of Sept 30):

The crash isn't stopping institutional infrastructure building.

Thanksgiving Week: Volatility Setup

This isn't a normal week:

Thin liquidity: Institutional traders take holiday. Market depth shrinks. Outsized moves possible.

Compressed data: Three major economic releases (retail sales, PPI, jobless claims) in two days due to government shutdown backlog.

Historical note: Thanksgiving week has coincided with notable Bitcoin volatility in prior years due to thin liquidity and compressed trading sessions. Not a prediction — just context for why this week often moves.

Calendar (MarketWatch)

Key Levels

The Bottom Line

The consensus saw a stock crash and called it a crisis. The data showed a capital raise and revealed an adaptation.

Strategy isn't broken. It's evolving. The mNAV compression is forcing innovation - from equity premium flywheel to Bitcoin-backed credit instruments. Twenty-one billion dollars raised YTD through seven securities, with credit volume growing 29x in ten weeks.

The proxy era isn't ending because of fabricated short squeezes or index exclusion threats. It's evolving because better infrastructure arrived. Institutions aren't leaving Bitcoin. They're building the rails for it to become pristine collateral.

While retail panicked over headlines, patient capital kept building.

One story trended. The other will matter.

This is a description of how capital is behaving, not a recommendation to buy Strategy, Bitcoin, or any security.

This brief provides educational market commentary based on publicly available data. It does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk. Past patterns do not guarantee future results.

Pierce & Pierce Market Brief
Monday, November 24, 2025

Sources: CoinGecko | CoinGlass | Alternative.me | DeFiLlama | TradingView | MarketWatch | Farside Investors | SEC EDGAR 13F-HR filings | Strategy.com

Connect: pierce-pierce.ghost.io | @PiercePierceNYC | r/PiercePierce