Three Financial Times Hit Pieces in a Day: Bottom Signal?

📊 Data Verified: 18:45 UK | Price: CoinGecko/TradingView | Fear & Greed: Alternative.me | ETF Flows: Farside Investors | Derivatives: CoinGlass | Macro: MarketWatch

At a Glance

Scenario Update:

• Scenario A (Mid-cycle correction): 70% ← up from 65%
• Scenario B (Cycle structure changed): 20% ← down from 25%
• Scenario C (Extended bear): 10% unchanged

Read paths: 2 min (this box) | 5 min (bold sections + blockquotes) | 12 min (full brief)

What's Happening Now

On Wednesday morning, the Financial Times published not one, not two, but three negative Bitcoin articles. Featured prominently on their homepage. Same day.

James Van Straten at CoinDesk was first to note the significance: the FT has maintained consistent skepticism toward crypto for over a decade, and this concentrated negative coverage arrived as Bitcoin recovers from its 35% correction.

Crypto Twitter called it a coordinated hit. Bears called it vindication. And experienced cycle observers quietly noted something else entirely.

The obituary index just triggered.

The Noise: Death Spiral Headlines

The FT's case deserves a fair hearing. It's the story everyone's talking about.

Article one: "The fatal flaw in using bitcoin as a currency." The argument: Bitcoin's fixed supply becomes a liability during price crashes. When demand collapses, supply cannot contract. The author calculated that Bitcoin's 35% decline represented a "900% annualized inflation rate" in purchasing power terms, contrasting this with central banks that can shrink money supply during downturns to stabilize value.

Article two: "Infinite money glitch, meet arithmetic." This piece targeted Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), arguing the Saylor model is structurally broken. The thesis: Strategy issued shares and debt at a premium to buy Bitcoin, but spot ETFs have now eliminated any NAV premium for MSTR stock. With potential MSCI index exclusion looming, the article warned of forced selling and described the situation as "gravity meets mathematical certainty." The alchemy worked on the way up, the article argued, but arithmetic rules on the way down.

Article three: "Crypto hoarders dump tokens as shares tumble." This extended the death spiral thesis to all Bitcoin treasury companies. Many now trade below the market value of their crypto holdings and are selling tokens to fund share buybacks or service debt. The FT framed this as a one-way bet and warned most of these firms will likely be wiped out.

Three articles. One thesis: Bitcoin's structural problems are terminal.

There was one problem with this narrative.

The publication's track record is the inverse signal.

The Debunk: The Obituary Index

Bitcoin has been declared dead 450 times since 2010.

That's not hyperbole. It's a database. Multiple websites track every instance a notable publication or figure has declared Bitcoin dead, worthless, or doomed. The data reveals a pattern so consistent it's almost mechanical.

Obituary count by year:

The pattern is clear: obituaries spike during corrections and cluster at bottoms, not tops. 2017 had 124 death declarations, the most ever, the same year Bitcoin first crossed $20,000.

The Financial Times is a repeat offender. In December 2021, with Bitcoin at $47,000, FT published a guest post arguing Bitcoin was "worse than a Madoff-style Ponzi scheme." Bitcoin proceeded to hit new all-time highs within months. Earlier this year, as Van Straten noted, an FT columnist dismissed Bitcoin's scarcity by comparing it unfavorably to her own teeth.

Wednesday's trifecta, three negative pieces, same day, prominently featured, represents the kind of clustering that historically marks bottoms. Whether intentional or simply editorial momentum, the effect is the same: when legacy media declares victory over Bitcoin, the selling is typically exhausted.

Key insight: The 450 prior death declarations have one thing in common: they were all wrong. Wednesday's articles are entries 451, 452, and 453. Obituary clustering doesn't call exact bottoms. It marks exhaustion zones.

Van Straten also highlighted a pointed irony: the FT's trifecta published the same day the UK government announced £26 billion in new taxes on citizens. Bitcoin's genesis block famously embedded a Times headline: "Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks." The institutions Bitcoin was designed to provide an alternative to are the same ones writing its obituaries.

The Pivot: What the Headlines Concealed

While the FT ran death spiral coverage, three things happened that got almost no attention.

1. Grayscale filed to launch the first Zcash ETF.

The S-3 registration with the SEC would convert the existing Zcash Trust into an exchange-traded fund, the first privacy-coin ETF in U.S. history. This follows successful conversions of their Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Dogecoin, and Solana products. Another step in making crypto exposures look like normal securities. The infrastructure buildout continues regardless of headlines.

2. Robinhood acquired LedgerX to build a regulated prediction market exchange.

In partnership with Susquehanna, Robinhood is taking a 90% stake in LedgerX, the CFTC-regulated derivatives exchange formerly owned by FTX. The deal moves Robinhood from app front-end to owning the regulated derivatives plumbing, exactly the kind of infrastructure build you see in secular growth stories, not dying assets. Prediction markets are now their fastest-growing product line by revenue, 9 billion contracts traded by over 1 million customers in year one.

3. DDC added 100 BTC to its treasury during the pullback.

The Bitcoin treasury firm jumped 22% on the news, bringing total holdings to 1,183 BTC. While headlines screamed death spiral, institutions accumulated. Texas disclosed 57 BTC. El Salvador added 1,090 BTC. Strategy bought $835 million worth over the past week.

One story trended. The others will matter.

Institutional Positioning: The Divergence Deepens

The ETF picture is genuinely mixed. November has seen $3.79 billion in net outflows, the worst month since launch. BlackRock's IBIT alone recorded $2.47 billion in redemptions, including single-day outflows exceeding $500 million.

But context matters.

Cumulative ETF inflows since January 2024 remain at $57.6 billion. November's outflows represent 6.6% of total inflows, a significant pullback but not a structural collapse. And the outflows reflect thousands of retail and institutional clients liquidating through brokerages. There's no evidence BlackRock itself is dumping BTC; these are client redemptions, not sponsor liquidations. Social media conflated the two.

More importantly, the direction changed. Friday saw +$238.4 million in inflows after a week of hemorrhaging. Monday saw outflows resume at -$151 million, but Tuesday recovered with +$128.7 million. Choppy, not a clean reversal, but not capitulation either.

The pattern: massive single-day outflows interspersed with recovery sessions. This is deleveraging behavior, not abandonment. The average ETF buyer's cost basis sits around $90,146, they're underwater but not dramatically so. The structural thesis remains intact even as short-term positioning unwinds.

Bottom line: ETF outflows signal short-term risk-off behavior, not long-term institutional retreat. The infrastructure continues expanding even during the correction.

The Macro Context: Why QT Ending Matters

December 1 is five days away. That's when the Federal Reserve officially ends Quantitative Tightening.

QT has drained approximately $2 trillion from markets since 2022. That's been a structural headwind for all risk assets, liquidity flowing out of the system rather than in.

Ending QT doesn't mean liquidity starts flowing in. It means the drain stops.

• QT (2022-2025): Bathtub draining
• Dec 1 (QT ends): Drain plug closed
• QE (future): Water flowing back in

We're moving from step one to step two. The headwind becomes neutral. That's not the same as a tailwind, but it's the necessary precondition.

The 2019 precedent is instructive. When the Fed ended QT that September and cut rates, Bitcoin fell 35% over the following three months. The rally didn't come until March 2020, when the Fed launched full-scale QE in response to COVID.

Removing headwinds creates the setup. Adding tailwinds creates the move.

Fed cut odds for December 9 now sit at 81%, up from 70% before Tuesday's economic data. Retail sales missed (0.2% vs 0.3% expected). Consumer confidence cratered to a seven-month low at 88.7. Core PPI came in soft at 0.1% vs 0.3% expected. The Fed has cover to cut.

Combined with QT ending, December marks the transition from "tightening" to "neutral/accommodative." That's not an instant catalyst, but it removes the structural constraints that have pressured risk assets all year.

Sentiment: The Obituary-Bottom Correlation

Fear & Greed dropped to 15 today, recovering slightly from Saturday's 10 but still in extreme fear territory.

Historical context for sub-15 readings:

But here's what makes the FT trifecta significant: it adds obituary data to sentiment data.

When you overlay Fear & Greed at 15 with three fresh FT "Bitcoin is doomed" pieces, you get a classic obituary-sentiment cluster: extreme retail fear combined with peak media negativity. As the obituary table above shows, this combination has historically marked bottoming zones, not cycle tops.

Three FT obituaries in a single day, during extreme fear readings, represents a convergence of two historically reliable contrarian signals:

• Extreme retail fear (sentiment data)
• Peak media negativity (obituary data)

These signals don't call exact bottoms. They identify zones where consensus turns maximally bearish and contrarian setups form. Wednesday may be one of those zones.

Derivatives: The Leverage Flush

The correction cleared $1 billion+ in leveraged positions. Here's the aftermath:

*OI figures vary slightly by aggregator; CoinGlass data shown.

When funding is neutral and open interest stabilizes after a flush, the market has reset. Speculative froth is gone. The leverage that amplified the decline has been cleared.

Why this matters: Leverage-driven corrections tend to be self-limiting. Once overleveraged positions liquidate, forced selling stops. What remains is healthier: fewer paper hands, more patient capital, cleaner order books. This removes the main fuel for further cascades, even if a fresh macro shock can always create new ones.

Observable Patterns

Pattern 1: The Obituary Index

As detailed above, Bitcoin obituaries cluster at bottoms, not tops. The FT's December 2021 "Ponzi" piece preceded new all-time highs.

Where we are now: Three FT obituaries in one day. Fear & Greed at 15. Obituary-sentiment convergence triggered.

Pattern 2: Cycle Indicator Dashboard

Zero out of thirty cycle peak indicators have triggered. CBBI sits at 59/100, threshold for blow-off top is 90+. This looks like mid-cycle correction behavior.

Where we are now: Every prior cycle top lit up multiple indicators simultaneously. Current reading: zero.

Pattern 3: Institutional Accumulation During Retail Panic

While retail sold in fear, treasury companies added. DDC (+100 BTC), El Salvador (+1,090 BTC), Strategy (+8,178 BTC). The divergence between retail sentiment and institutional behavior widens during corrections.

Where we are now: Pattern active. Divergence pronounced.

Week Ahead: Thanksgiving Volatility

This is not a normal trading week.

Thanksgiving week means thin liquidity. Institutional desks take holiday. Order books empty. Small flows move prices violently. Exaggerated moves likely through Friday.

Thanksgiving weeks have previously produced violent short-term moves in Bitcoin. In 2020, Bitcoin dropped 17% in four days around Thanksgiving before rallying to new highs by year end. Thin liquidity amplifies everything.

Practical implication: Don't read too much into price action through Friday. Volume returns next week. The obituary-sentiment signal operates on weeks-to-months timeframes, not days.

Key Levels

Trend: Recovering from capitulation low. Consolidating $86K-$89K.

Bias: Neutral with improving macro backdrop and contrarian signals triggering.

Altseason Index: 41 (Neutral). Bitcoin dominance at 58.69%. Flight to quality continues, altcoins unlikely to lead until BTC stabilizes above $90K.

The Bottom Line

Bitcoin has been declared dead 450 times. The Financial Times just added three more in a single day.

The obituary index has been remarkably consistent. Peak death declarations in 2017 (124) and 2018 (93) marked bottoming zones, not cycle tops. The FT's December 2021 "Ponzi scheme" piece arrived at $47,000. Bitcoin hit new all-time highs months later.

Wednesday's trifecta, three hit pieces during Fear & Greed at 15, represents exactly the kind of obituary-sentiment convergence that has marked every prior bottom zone. Add zero cycle top indicators triggered, and the pattern becomes clearer.

While the FT argued Bitcoin can never function as currency, Grayscale filed for the first privacy-coin ETF. While death spiral narratives spread, Robinhood acquired infrastructure to build prediction market exchanges. While retail panic hit multi-year highs, treasury companies added to positions.

QT ends in five days. Fed cut odds sit at 81%. The headwind removal begins.

450 obituaries. All wrong.

Wednesday's three articles are entries 451, 452, and 453. They'll join the database alongside every other declaration that Bitcoin was dead, worthless, or doomed.

The noise is loud. The signal is clear.

The Financial Times has been writing Bitcoin obituaries for a decade. Bitcoin keeps attending its own funeral. Then rallying.

Pattern recognition, not prediction.

This brief provides educational market commentary based on publicly available data. It does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk. Past patterns do not guarantee future results. The author holds Bitcoin.

Pierce & Pierce Market Brief Wednesday, November 26, 2025

Sources: CoinGecko | CoinGlass | Alternative.me | Farside Investors | TradingView | CoinDesk (James Van Straten) | MarketWatch | SEC EDGAR | Financial Times

Connect: pierce-pierce.ghost.io | @PiercePierceNYC | r/PiercePierce