The Top Isn’t In
Introducing the Pierce & Pierce Cycle Risk Index
In October, Bitcoin hit $126K and crashed 30% in days. Crypto Twitter called the cycle top. The leverage metrics looked terrifying. Fear spread.
We didn’t flinch.
Our proprietary Cycle Risk Index said leverage flush, not cycle top. The structure wasn’t there.
Here’s where we are, what’s coming, and how we’ll know when the actual top arrives.
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Current Status: The Cycle Risk Index
Scan this in 10 seconds. Details below.
| Metric | Current | Status | What It Means |
|---|---|---|---|
| CRI Topping Score | Gate CLOSED | 🟢 | Model inactive. Not enough euphoria to trigger. |
| CRI Bottoming Score | 10/130 | 🟢 | Nowhere near capitulation. |
| MVRV | 1.57 | 🟢 | Average holder up ~57%. No euphoria. |
| HY Credit Spread | 2.84% | 🟢 | No macro stress. |
| ISM PMI | 48.2 | 🟡 | Contraction. Upside capped until >50. |
CRI Verdict: 🟢 Mid-cycle correction. Not a top. Not a bottom. Rally resumes.
What Is the Cycle Risk Index?
The Pierce & Pierce Cycle Risk Index (CRI) is our proprietary framework for identifying genuine cycle tops and bottoms — and filtering out the fakeouts that trap most traders.
Here’s the problem with most crypto analysis: they compare numbers that aren’t comparable.
$24 billion in open interest was “extreme” in 2021 when Bitcoin’s market cap was $1.2 trillion. $55 billion in open interest means something completely different today with a $1.9 trillion market cap. Same number, different context, different meaning.
The CRI solves this by normalizing everything.
Instead of asking “is $55B in open interest a lot?” we ask: What percentage of Bitcoin’s total value is deployed in leveraged bets?
Then we gate those signals — only trusting them when market conditions indicate they’re meaningful.
The result: a system that caught every major cycle top and bottom since 2013, while avoiding the fakeouts that fooled everyone else.
Why Should You Trust the CRI?
We tested this framework against every major Bitcoin cycle event since 2013. Not just tops and bottoms — the fakeouts, the crashes that weren’t cycle ends, the rallies that fooled everyone.
Every Cycle Bottom Since 2015: Caught
| Bottom | What Happened | CRI Signal |
|---|---|---|
| January 2015 | Bear market end, BTC at $165 | 🟢 All three indicators triggered |
| December 2018 | Bear market end, BTC at $3,200 | 🟢 All three indicators triggered |
| March 2020 | COVID crash, BTC at $4,900 | 🟢 All three indicators triggered |
| November 2022 | FTX collapse, BTC at $15,700 | 🟢 All three indicators triggered |
Four bottoms. Zero misses.
Three independent methodologies (holder profitability, miner economics, and macro stress) all confirmed each one.
Every Cycle Top Since 2013: Identified
| Top | What Happened | CRI Signal |
|---|---|---|
| November 2013 | Cycle top at $1,100, 84% crash followed | 🔴 Gate open, signals present |
| December 2017 | Cycle top at $19,600, 84% crash followed | 🔴 Gate open, signals present |
| November 2021 | Cycle top at $69,000, 77% crash followed | 🔴 Gate open, divergence confirmed |
The Fakeouts: Avoided
| Event | What Most Thought | What Actually Happened | CRI Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| June 2019 | New bull market top | Mid-cycle rally | 🟢 NOT a top |
| May 2021 | Cycle top | Leverage flush, rally resumed | 🟢 NOT a top |
| October 2025 | Cycle top | TBD (we say flush) | 🟢 NOT a top |
The CRI doesn’t just catch tops and bottoms. It filters out the noise in between.
How the CRI Works: The Gate System
Here’s something most analysts won’t tell you: the same metric can mean opposite things depending on context.
OI/Market Cap at 3%:
- During euphoria: 🔴 Danger. Leverage building into a top.
- During drawdowns: 🟢 Mechanical. Market cap shrank, OI stayed sticky.
Same number, opposite meaning. So how do you tell the difference?
The CRI uses a gate system.
We use MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) to determine which regime we’re in. It answers: “How much profit is the average holder sitting on?”
| MVRV | What It Means | Gate Status |
|---|---|---|
| Above 2.5 | Average holder up 150%+. Euphoria territory. | 🔴 OPEN — Topping signals active |
| 1.8 to 2.5 | Elevated but ambiguous. | 🟡 CONDITIONAL — Need confirmation |
| Below 1.8 | Average holder up less than 80%. No euphoria. | 🟢 CLOSED — Ignore topping signals |
Current MVRV: 1.57 → 🟢 Gate CLOSED
We’re not in euphoria. Any “danger signals” right now are noise — drawdown mechanics, not cycle top dynamics.
This is why we didn’t panic in October. MVRV was 2.29, below the hard threshold. The gate wasn’t fully open.
The CRI Bottoming Model: Three Independent Lenses
Calling bottoms is actually easier than calling tops — if you know what to look for.
The CRI uses three completely independent metrics. When all three trigger together, it’s a high-conviction bottom.
1. MVRV below 1.0 — The average holder is underwater. Capitulation.
2. NUPL below 0% — The network as a whole is at a loss. Everyone underwater together.
3. Puell Multiple below 0.6 — Miners earning 40% less than average. Mining unprofitable.
Historical Validation
| Bottom | MVRV | NUPL | Puell | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 0.53 🟢 | -88% 🟢 | 0.29 🟢 | 3/3 triggered |
| 2018 | 0.77 🟢 | -43% 🟢 | 0.37 🟢 | 3/3 triggered |
| 2020 | 0.87 🟢 | -15% 🟢 | 0.59 🟢 | 3/3 triggered |
| 2022 | 0.78 🟢 | -29% 🟢 | 0.44 🟢 | 3/3 triggered |
Four bottoms. All three metrics triggered at each one. Zero misses.
Where Are We Now?
| Metric | Current | Threshold | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| MVRV | 1.57 | < 1.0 | 🟢 Not triggered |
| NUPL | ~36% | < 0% | 🟢 Not triggered |
| Puell | ~1.08 | < 0.6 | 🟢 Not triggered |
Not even close to bottoming territory. The people calling for $40K Bitcoin aren’t looking at the data.
The CRI Topping Model: What We’re Watching
Tops are harder than bottoms. More noise, more fakeouts, more emotion. The CRI uses a gate system plus confirming signals.
Step 1: Is the Gate Open?
MVRV must be above 1.8 (ideally above 2.5) for topping signals to activate.
Current: 1.57 → 🟢 Gate closed. Topping model inactive.
Step 2: Look for Structural Weakness
The killer signal is MVRV divergence: price makes a new high but MVRV makes a lower high. The market is reaching new prices with less excess, less euphoria, less fuel. Exhaustion.
2021 Example:
- April 2021: BTC at $64K, MVRV at 3.44
- November 2021: BTC at $69K (higher), MVRV at 2.73 (lower)
- Divergence: -21% → 🔴 Top confirmed weeks later
Current Cycle:
- March 2024: MVRV at 2.67
- October 2025: MVRV at 2.29
- Divergence: -14% → 🟡 Early warning, but below -20% threshold
Step 3: Confirming Signals
When the gate opens and divergence appears, we look for:
- OI/Market Cap above 1.8%
- Long-term holders distributing
- Extreme readings on sentiment
Current status: None present. Gate isn’t even open.
CRI Summary: Where We Stand
| Question | Answer | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Are we near a top? | No. Gate closed, no divergence confirmation. | 🟢 |
| Are we near a bottom? | No. All three indicators well above thresholds. | 🟢 |
| What’s the macro saying? | No stress. HY spreads normal. | 🟢 |
| Any yellow flags? | ISM PMI in contraction. Caps near-term upside. | 🟡 |
CRI Verdict: Mid-cycle correction. Rally resumes.
What We’re Watching Next
| Trigger | What It Would Mean | Current |
|---|---|---|
| ISM PMI crosses above 50 | Macro expansion. Upside potential explodes. | 🟡 48.2 |
| MVRV crosses 1.8 | Gate opens. Topping model activates. | 🟢 1.57 |
| MVRV crosses 2.5 | Hard gate. Full conviction on topping signals. | 🟢 1.57 |
| MVRV divergence exceeds 20% | Structural exhaustion. Top approaching. | 🟡 -14% |
| HY Spread above 4.5% | Macro stress. Bottoming signal (not topping). | 🟢 2.84% |
None of the danger signals are present today.
How We’ll Call The Top
When the real top approaches, you’ll hear it from us first. Here’s what the CRI will be showing:
- 🔴 Gate wide open: MVRV above 2.5
- 🔴 Structural exhaustion: MVRV divergence above 20%
- 🔴 Composite score above 60: Multiple confirmations firing
- 🔴 Distribution behavior: Long-term holders taking profit
We don’t see any of this now. Not close.
When we do, we’ll tell you. Clearly. Without hedging.
The Bottom Line
In October, the crowd called the top. The CRI didn’t.
Our proprietary framework, tested against every cycle since 2013, said leverage flush, not cycle top.
The top isn’t in. The rally resumes.
And when the real top comes, the Cycle Risk Index will show it before the crowd figures it out.
We’re positioned accordingly.
Stay ahead of crypto Twitter noise.
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Followers get CRI updates, real-time alerts, and the full methodology.
Pierce & Pierce Research, January 2026
The Cycle Risk Index (CRI) is proprietary research developed by Pierce & Pierce. Full methodology available in our Normalized Cycle Metrics documentation.
